计算机行业月报：DEEPSEEK-R1带来AI技术突破持续关注GPT-5的推出进程

中原证券股份有...2025-02-14

投资要点：2024 年我国软件产业增速呈现回落趋势。2024 年软件业务收入13.73 万亿元，同比增长10.0%，较2023 年13.4%的增速回落了3.4PCT。2024 年软件业务利润总额16953 亿元，同比增长8.7%，较2023 年13.6%的增速水平回落了4.9 PCT。重点关注子行业的主要数据和动态包括：（1）国产化：2024 年，我国集成电路在进口依赖度比例为78%（即国产化占比...

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年我国软件产业增速呈现回落趋势。2024 年软件业务收入13.73 万亿元，同比增长10.0%，较2023 年13.4%的增速回落了3.4PCT。2024 年软件业务利润总额16953 亿元，同比增长8.7%，较2023 年13.6%的增速水平回落了4.9 PCT。重点关注子行业的主要数据和动态包括：（1）国产化：2024 年，我国集成电路在进口依赖度比例为78%（即国产化占比22%），较1-11 月回落2 PCT，下滑趋势明显加大，表明美国一系列禁令影响在持续释放。阿斯麦对中国出口量的快速上升，意味着未来国内芯片产量有望得到较大增长。华为2024 年收入重回美国制裁前的水平，研发投入增长明显。（2）AI：R1 在后训练阶段大规模使用了强化学习，来取代传统大模型中监督式微调的方法，不需要大量的标注数据，节省了算力，同时实现了与o1 相媲美的性能。这意味着在Scaling Law 失效的困扰下，人类在增加训练数据和算力以外，探索出了高效的架构与训练策略提升的新路径，这或将成为推动OpenAI 的GPT-5 问世的一个最重要的技术突破。（3）算力：2024Q4，美国5 大科技厂商的资本开支再创新高，总计达到734.97 亿美元，同比增长66%，较Q3 继续提升了7PCT。DeepSeek-R1 发布后，亚马逊、谷歌、Meta 仍然给出了2025 年积极的资本投入计划，同时海内外云厂商都快速接入了DeepSeek 的模型，国产芯片厂商也快速实现了适配。浙江省即将推出人工智能专项规划，力争2025 年全省算力规模超过100EFlops，加快趋势明显。给予行业同步大市的投资评级。2025 年2 月11 日中信计算机行业估值为53.06 倍，经过节后一轮上涨，当前估值仍然位于历史均值水平之间，但是已经接近估值均值区间上限。由于DeepSeek-R1 的技术突破，中国在大模型领域的能力获得了全球的认可，也为后续大模型的发展探索出了一条新的提升路径。因为DeepSeek-R1 采用开源策略，极大地加快国产芯片的适配，加大下游应用能力的释放。我们认为DeepSeek-R1 虽然对算力需求降低，但是随着应用端的推理需求大量释放，全球算力需求还将持续快速增长。考虑到GPT-5 即将发布和AI 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计算机行业月报：DEEPSEEK-R1带来AI技术突破 持续关注GPT-5的推出进程

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计算机行业月报：DEEPSEEK-R1带来AI技术突破持续关注GPT-5的推出进程