极地寒流来袭，欧盟天然气库存减少，价格升至两年来最高水平

华尔街见闻2025-02-11

随着欧洲西北部即将迎来一波寒流，欧洲天然气价格飙升至两年新高。寒流预计将持续到下周初，气温急剧下降将大幅推高天然气需求，而欧盟天然气库存持续减少，且远低于往年平均水平，进一步加剧供应担忧。受此影响，欧洲基准天然气价格——荷兰TTF天然气期货价格周一大幅上涨，最高涨幅达5.4%，至每兆瓦时58.75欧元，创下2023年2月以来的最高水平。寒流和库存压力推高天然气价格气象模型预测，本周欧洲西北部的气温...

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Lohmann Rasmussen指出：“欧盟在春季到来时天然气库存处于极低水平的风险正在加剧。”他还表示，不仅近月天然气期货合约价格飙升，2026年到2027年的远期合约价格也在上涨，表明市场对未来供应紧张的担忧加剧。除了寒冷天气和库存不足，市场还在密切关注美欧之间可能爆发的贸易冲突。特朗普于当地时间2月9日表示，将于周一宣布对所有国家的钢铝进口加征25%的关税。此举可能导致与欧盟之间的贸易关系进一步紧张。特朗普的言论引发了法国外交部长Jean-Noel Barrot的回应，Barrot表示，欧盟应毫不犹豫地捍卫自己的利益，并暗示将采取类似2018年应对美国关税威胁时的反应。这一贸易冲突的潜在影响，可能进一步影响天然气市场，尤其是在特朗普一直推动欧盟增加购买美国液化天然气（LNG）的背景下。哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心研究员Anne-Sophie Corbeau表示，特朗普可能充当液化天然气营销“总监”的角色，力图推动更多美国LNG进入欧洲市场。然而，在贸易争端背景下，他在向欧洲销售更多LNG方面能否取得成功还有待观察。自2022年初俄乌冲突以来，欧洲已经开始将LNG供应从莫斯科转向美国。为了解决潜在的贸易争端，欧盟可能会考虑购买更多美国LNG以满足特朗普的要求。华尔街见闻此前报道，在特朗普放风下周实施“对等关税”之际，欧盟秘密准备一整年的“胡萝卜加大棒”应对预案正浮出水面。媒体援引三位要求匿名的欧盟外交官消息称，布鲁塞尔的\"特朗普工作组\"在2024年投入一整年时间，制定了一系列应对预案：既包括增购美国天然气、降低汽车关税等善意举措，也准备了从打击共和党票仓到制裁硅谷科技巨头的精准反制方案。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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