基础化工行业：类香兰素逻辑：TCPP、TEP出海企业优先受益

国泰君安证券股...2025-02-12

本报告导读：美国对中国烷基磷酸酯产品反倾销初裁结果公布，其认定中国企业的倾销率为164%-270%，考虑到我国是全球重要的阻燃剂生产、出口国，终裁公布后或带动相关产品价格的上涨。我们认为布局相关产品海外产能的企业优先受益。投资要点：与香兰素类似，TCPP面临美国反倾销。事件：2024 年 12 月4日，美国发布关于烷基磷酸酯产品的反倾销初裁公告，主要包括磷酸三(2-氯异丙基)酯 (TCPP)、磷酸...

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年 12 月4日，美国发布关于烷基磷酸酯产品的反倾销初裁公告，主要包括磷酸三(2-氯异丙基)酯 (TCPP)、磷酸三(1,3-二氯异丙基)酯 (TDCP)和磷酸三乙酯 (TEP)三种产品。根据初裁公告，认定相关企业及倾销率为：安徽润岳（247.52%）、万盛股份（164.29%）、其它列示厂家（182.22%）以及未列示的中国厂家（269.60%）。中国是阻燃剂的主要供给地。TCPP、TDCP、TEP 属于有机磷系阻燃剂大类，且主要用于聚氨酯阻燃。根据化学信息周刊，阻燃剂产品下游主要应用于聚氨酯、聚氯乙烯、聚烯烃、工程塑料等高分子材料的阻燃改性，其中聚氨酯领域消费占比最大，约为20%。终端应用主要集中在电线电缆、家电及3C 行业、汽车、建筑、电器开关、胶粘剂等领域。2023 年，全球阻燃剂总消费量约250.5 万吨（其中有机磷系占比约30%），其中：西欧消费量约53.7 万吨（21.44%），北美需求量约51.1 万吨（20.40%），中国需求量约74.6 万吨（29.78%）；2023 年中国阻燃剂产量增长至122 万吨，中国是全球重要的阻燃剂供给地。布局相关产品海外产能的企业优先受益。根据初裁公告，美国商务部将在初裁公告日的135 日内发布终裁结果。我们预计双反落地后或对海外（尤其美国）的相关产品价格形成较强支撑。优先海外布局企业或优先受益。受益标的：万盛股份，恒光股份。催化剂：反倾销终裁落地，海外企业退出。风险提示：相关公司投建进度不及预期，海外厂商扩产。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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