《大行》高盛：中国空运受关税影响最大其次为集装箱运输

阿斯达克财经2025-02-05

高盛的研究报告指，美国总统特朗普在上周末签署行政命令，宣布对内地货品加征10%关税，令内地进口商品的有效关税率加倍。尽管今次的幅度低于该行宏观团队的基本假设，但最终走向仍存在高度不确定性。根据高盛估算，如果这加征的10%关税持续，将使内地今年的实际GDP增长率降低50个基点，并对内地的消费物价指数(CPI)通胀形成下行压力。随着美元的广泛走强，该行还预计人民币将面临特殊的贬值压力，使美元兑人民币的...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2509142081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20230420145521497_s.jpg","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-02-05 14:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2509142081","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"《大行》高盛：中国空运受关税影响最大  其次为集装箱运输","media":"阿斯达克财经","content":"<div>\n<p>高盛的研究报告指，美国总统特朗普在上周末签署行政命令，宣布对内地货品加征10%关税，令内地进口商品的有效关税率加倍。尽管今次的幅度低于该行宏观团队的基本假设，但最终走向仍存在高度不确定性。根据高盛估算，如果这加征的10%关税持续，将使内地今年的实际GDP增长率降低50个基点，并对内地的消费物价指数(CPI)通胀形成下行压力。随着美元的广泛走强，该行还预计人民币将面临特殊的贬值压力，使美元兑人民币的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=NOW.1414965&catg=4&source=AAFN\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"aastocks_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大行》高盛：中国空运受关税影响最大  其次为集装箱运输</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大行》高盛：中国空运受关税影响最大  其次为集装箱运输\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-05 14:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=NOW.1414965&catg=4&source=AAFN><strong>阿斯达克财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛的研究报告指，美国总统特朗普在上周末签署行政命令，宣布对内地货品加征10%关税，令内地进口商品的有效关税率加倍。尽管今次的幅度低于该行宏观团队的基本假设，但最终走向仍存在高度不确定性。根据高盛估算，如果这加征的10%关税持续，将使内地今年的实际GDP增长率降低50个基点，并对内地的消费物价指数(CPI)通胀形成下行压力。随着美元的广泛走强，该行还预计人民币将面临特殊的贬值压力，使美元兑人民币的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=NOW.1414965&catg=4&source=AAFN\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1720050803.USD","symbol_name":"安联全方位中国股票基金","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=NOW.1414965&catg=4&source=AAFN","article_id":"2509142081","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20230420145521497_s.jpg"],"rights":{"source":"aastocks_highlight","url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/analysis/china-hot-topic-content.aspx?id=NOW.1414965&catg=4&source=AAFN","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2509142081","pubTimestamp":1738737000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"aastocks_highlight","name":"阿思達克財經"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛的研究报告指，美国总统特朗普在上周末签署行政命令，宣布对内地货品加征10%关税，令内地进口商品的有效关税率加倍。高盛亦提出，在其覆盖范围内，中国空运受关税影响最大，主要因为中国商品被排除在免税的“低额豁免”门槛之外，其次是集装箱航运，而港口则相对受到的影响较小。新秀丽因为将供应链转到非内地制造商而某程度上避免了的影响，不过对中国中免的影响则视乎中方的回应。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"aastocks.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU2065170008.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","00001":"长和","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU2065171402.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) INC","BK1230":"工业集团企业","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999004311.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Emerging Enterprise Discovery Fund SGD","BK1601":"香港本地股","00144":"招商局港口","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","BK1535":"港口运输股","01199":"中远海运港口","01919":"中远海控","LU0823040885.USD":"东方汇理新兴市场焦点股票基金","BK1103":"海运","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149534421.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF HONG KONG EQ \"A\" ACC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","01910":"新秀丽","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU0607220059.USD":"SCHRODER ISF HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","01880":"中国中免","BK1173":"海港与服务","BK1227":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","BK1505":"一带一路","BK1602":"香港零售股","SG9999011746.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE INTERNATIONAL FUNDS - ACORNS OF ASIA BA (SGD) ACC","BK1577":"香港本地消费股","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","BK1500":"做空集合股","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1569":"长和系","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU1048588211.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Dragon A2 SGD-H","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金"},"translate_title":"\"Big Bank\" Goldman Sachs: China's air transportation is the most affected by tariffs, followed by container transportation","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01910":1,"01919":1,"00144":1,"00001":1,"01199":1,"01880":1},"content_text":"高盛的研究报告指，美国总统特朗普在上周末签署行政命令，宣布对内地货品加征10%关税，令内地进口商品的有效关税率加倍。尽管今次的幅度低于该行宏观团队的基本假设，但最终走向仍存在高度不确定性。根据高盛估算，如果这加征的10%关税持续，将使内地今年的实际GDP增长率降低50个基点，并对内地的消费物价指数(CPI)通胀形成下行压力。随着美元的广泛走强，该行还预计人民币将面临特殊的贬值压力，使美元兑人民币的中间价逐步上升至7.3，现货价格可能攀升至7.4至7.5之间。高盛亦提出，在其覆盖范围内，中国空运受关税影响最大，主要因为中国商品被排除在免税的“低额豁免”(De minimis)门槛之外，其次是集装箱航运，而港口则相对受到的影响较小。新秀丽(01910.HK) 因为将供应链转到非内地制造商而某程度上避免了的影响，不过对中国中免(01880.HK) 的影响则视乎中方的回应。公司│2024年美国业务占比│估计10%关税持续3个月、6个月或12个月对盈利影响中远海控(01919.HK) │31%│-4%、-8%、-16%招商局港口(00144.HK) │7%│-2%、-4%、-9%中远海运(01199.HK) │7%│-2%、-5%、-10%长和(00001.HK) │4%│-0.2%、-0.4%、-0.7%新秀丽(01910.HK) │3%│-1%、-2%、-2%(vc/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-05 12:25。)AASTOCKS新闻","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2509142081","isCrawlerRequest":true}

《大行》高盛：中国空运受关税影响最大 其次为集装箱运输

精彩评论

《大行》高盛：中国空运受关税影响最大其次为集装箱运输