知名研究公司：纳指100的历史性牛市还没走完

金十数据2025-01-22

自2023年初以来，纳斯达克100指数（NDX）几乎翻了一番，在此过程中市值增加了14万亿美元。知名研究公司Evercore ISI的技术分析主管里奇·罗斯（Rich Ross）认为，这种涨势将持续下去，并且对美股牛市的熟悉克星——对债券收益率上升的担忧——不屑一顾。美国国债收益率上周跃升至数月高点，与此同时投资者分析经济数据，寻找美国总统唐纳德·特朗普大选胜利后美联储下一次降息的线索。人们...

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罗斯表示。\n根据彭博汇编的数据，截至周二，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数已经有467个交易日高于其200天移动平均线——这是自该指数四十年前成立以来第二长的一次。\n\n纳斯达克100指数已经有467个交易日高于其200日均线\n\n纳斯达克100指数目前比长期支撑位高出10%左右，对于那些监控日均线和其他指标以确定股市走势的技术分析师来说，这是一个相对稳定的信号。\n\n纳斯达克100指数较200日均线高出10%左右\n\n未来几周将是股市的关键时期，因为大型科技公司准备公布季度收益，而美联储将于1月29日公布的下一个政策决定迫在眉睫。\n随着财报季的进行，投资者正在倾听企业高管对未来几个月的预期。下周是本财报季最繁忙的一周，苹果（APPL）、微软（MSFT）和Meta Platforms Inc.（META）等公司都会发布报告。\n宏观风险顾问公司（Macro Risk Advisors）技术策略主管约翰•科洛沃斯（John Kolovos）正在监测追踪纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq 100）的最大交易所交易基金。他认为技术支撑位在485-495美元之间，在该ETF去年11月低点附近。在他看来，任何仍高于这一区间的回调都提供了逢低买入的机会。\n科洛沃斯说，“债券收益率下降有利于提高市场广度和股市参与度。技术分析师也在关注苹果股票是否会在其股价接近200日移动均线时获得买盘。”\n美国10年期国债收益率上周短暂突破4.8%，高于2024年的高点，但此后下跌超过20个基点，周二徘徊在4.57%左右。\n对于科洛沃斯来说，基准美国国债收益率的下一个关键支撑位是4.5%，接近其50日均线和去年11月的峰值。他还关注4.8%和2023年底高点5%的阻力位。10年期国债收益率的14天相对强弱指数在两周前突破了70的水平，一些技术人员认为这是过热的迹象。\n\n10年期美债收益率测试潜在支撑4.5%\n\n在纳斯达克100指数较去年12月的纪录高点下跌约2.4%之际，芯片股相对于软件股的股价却创下新高，这是Evercore ISI的罗斯非常看好的一个迹象，这表明交易员正在转投英伟达（NVDA）等芯片制造商的股票，这些公司在两年多的时间里一直为牛市提供动力。\n事实上，彭博社汇编的数据显示，持有英伟达、应用材料（AMAT）和超微半导体（AMD） 等芯片领头羊的VanEck半导体ETF（SMH）在过去六周中的有五周的表现优于Shares扩展技术软件行业ETF （IGV）。\n罗斯表示：“收益率上升对较小盘股和周期性股票造成独特压力，因此当收益率有所缓解时，我们的第一反应是回购那些受到重创的股票......当尘埃落定时，我们会回到那些长期趋势强劲、拥有巨额现金储备和护城河的大型科技公司。”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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