轻工行业月报：持续关注新一轮国补对需求的催化作用

中国银河证券股...2025-01-16

家居：以旧换新拉动下游需求修复，25年政策持续确定性强。24年以旧换新政策对需求拉动作用明显，预计集中反映在25Q1。2024年1-11 月家具零售业销售收入同比+16.8%，显著高于零售业整体增速（同比+4.5%），其中单 11 月同比+36%。据奥维云网，截至 24 年底，家装厨卫领域以旧换新带动销售相关产品近6000万套，销售额约1200亿元。2024年国补对上市公司业绩的拉动作用预计将...

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50.11%。预计该项收购完成后，行业产能布局和竞争格局有望改善，龙头马太效应有望进一步凸显。轻工消费：拼搭玩具龙头布鲁可在港上市。1月10日，国内知名拼搭玩具品牌布鲁可（0325.HK）正式在港交所主板挂牌上市。布鲁可在中国拼搭角色类玩具细分市场及中国拼搭类玩具市场的市场份额分别为 30.3%及 7.4%；在全球拼搭角色类玩具市场中排名第三，市场份额为 6.3%。公司产品种类丰富（截至2024年6月共有431款在售SKU）、IP多元（截至2024年底已从IP版权方或授权方获得约50个知名IP的非独家授权，包括奥特曼、变形金刚、火影忍者、小黄人、宝可梦、假面骑士、名侦探柯南、初音未来等）且产品具有较高的性价比（主流产品价格在9.9元至399元），公司2023-2024H1营收分别同比+169.3%、237.6%，未来增长潜力较高。投资建议：家居板块，看好25年“以旧换新”政策对下游需求的催化作用建议关注定制家居欧派家居（603833.SH）、索菲亚（002572.SZ）、志邦家居（603801.SH）、金牌家居（603180.SH）、尚品宅配（300616.SZ）；软体家居顾家家居（603816.SH）、慕思股份（001323.SZ）、喜临门（603008.SH）；民用电工龙头公牛集团（603195.SH）；包装行业资源整合加速，建议关注裕同科技（002831.SZ）、奥瑞金（002701.SZ）、上海艾录（301062.SZ）。风险提示：房地产市场景气度不及预期的风险；下游需求修复不及预期的风险；原材料价格大幅上涨的风险；行业竞争加剧的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like 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