2024年全球宏观搞笑/严肃回顾

华尔街见闻2024-12-29

年度坐牢预测：美国衰退，经济复苏，鹰派BOJ，欧洲要寄评：你去翻2022年和2023年的展望，可能也是这四个预测…… 年度白干交易：中小盘轮动，做多美债，做多日元评：喜欢从Mag7切IWM是吧？喜欢买TMF是吧？喜欢搞Carry Trade Unwind是吧? 年度躺平交易：Mag7，中债，多美元，黄金/比特币评：我们有自己的纳斯达克（TL）和标普500（红利） Q1视觉疲劳主题：干日股，...

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Sachs\n去年的美国经济十问十答预测对了几个？\n\n\n消费支出是否超出一致预期？是的。✔\n\n\n实际商品和服务消费之间的差距是否会缩小至疫情前的趋势？不。✔\n\n\n银行放贷会加速吗？是的。❌\n\n\n失业率会保持在4%以下吗？是的。❌\n\n\n工资增速会回落到4%以内吗？是的。✔\n\n\nPCE会回落到FOMC的预估水平（2.4%）以下吗？会的。❌\n\n\n联储会降息4次吗？是的。❌\n\n\n联储是否会在三季度停止QT？不会。✔\n\n\n大选前的财政会更趋刺激性吗？不。✔\n\n\nHatzius开年预测美国经济热火朝天的同时，联储将在2024年内降息5次（125bp），从 最终结果上看虽然9月的50bp降息让很多卖方“预测错误”，但真正的小丑实际是“事后找补”的联储……\n9月份Peter Oppenheimer在自己的王牌系列报告Global Strategy Paper No. 70 AI: To buy, or not to buy, that is the question中 闹乌龙，也一度引发市场参与者们的吐槽。\n图：虽然报告结论看起来没错，但GPT浏览量搞错了……\n\n摩根士丹利 Morgan Stanley\n今年China Pivot主题的主角：“邢”势比人强。\n\n摩根大通 J.P.Morgan\nKolanovic因为糟糕的预测黯然离职……\n\n但他接近离职前的报告警示了Carry Trade Unwind的风险，可惜宏观择时就是这么的艰深，市场不会包容你的“过早”和“过晚”，只会记得你的“适时”。\n\n花旗 Citi\n固收和自家宏观互怼的场景也算是见识过了……还直接写报告里。\n结果：他们都预测错了。\n\n\n德意志银行 Deustche Bank\n只要我的宏大叙事足够长，你就没法喷我。\n有一说一这篇报告还是非常有趣的，因为千禧年是互联网泡沫年，当年美国的财政状况也是回不去了。\n图：千禧年时，预期美国的债务会在2013年清零。\n\n图：真没想到这25年的股票回报相比于历史并不算出彩（起点高）。\n\n野村 Nomura\n陆挺老师依然相当谨慎，令人印象深刻。\n\nRichard Koo依然在操心我们的事儿，传授经验非常用力。\n\n他还是嫌量不太够。\n\n瑞银最近一年的美国经济PPT标题都是“放缓在即”。\n\n最近实在憋不住了，改成了……\n\n巴克莱 Barclays\n看美国货币市场还得是Abate，这还给你看起比特币战略储备了，六边形战士。\n\n图：虽然好久没有Zoltan看了，但还有Abate给你讲F-ONRRP\n\n本文来源：智堡Wisburg (ID:gh_62dff6352083)  原文标题《2024年全球宏观搞笑/严肃回顾》风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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