乘用车整车行业2025年度投资策略：政策促需自主向上智驭未来

民生证券股份有...12-22 11:34

回顾2024：补贴驱动需求新能源超预期渗透高端化+出海提振盈利。2024 年，总量端，受益以旧换新补贴驱动，整体批零表现较好，2024M1-10 上险销量2,142.8 万辆，同比+3.9%；价格方面，整体价格竞争温和，折扣力度趋于稳定。结构方面：1）新能源：受益于新能源补贴力度大于燃油及比亚迪降价带动行业实现“油电同价”，新能源渗透率超预期，从年初的30+%提升至当前的50+%；2）自主：...

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月政策不延续，则2024Q4 将存在翘尾效应，我们预计2025 年上险销量2,330 万辆，同比+3.6%。1）竞争格局：合资加速退坡 自主中高端替代加速。我们认为：1）2025 年市场格局将比2024 年更为明晰，2024 年自主车企已经对15 万元以下的合资车企完成出清，多数车企已难有进一步价格大幅下探的空间；2）15 万元内：价格带竞争格局稳定，比亚迪龙头地位稳固，看好吉利通过5-15 万元的新品矩阵进一步冲击燃油车市场，争夺龙二的地位；新势力车企中，小鹏和零跑同样有望在此价格带中凭借智能化及性价比优势获得较高的销量增速；3）高端市场：BBA 享有定价权但品牌力持续受损，自主车企或迎来增长空间，华为和小米两大消费电子巨头入局汽车行业，有望凭借其对用户的需求把握、营销能力、生态优势抢占份额，看好华为系、小米和理想通过品牌力和科技能力迎来销量的提升。2）智能化：城市NOA 加速落地 智能驾驶重塑秩序。海外，特斯拉在智能驾驶端已经形成算法、数据、训练的全闭环，FSD V12 推出以来累计行驶里程数加速增长，截至2024Q3 末已突破20 亿英里。国内，小鹏率先实现无图纯视觉城市NGP 落地，理想、小米、极氪、智己均发布智驾进度规划，展望2025 年，低成本智驾、无图城市NOA、车位到车位将成为智能驾驶产业化落地的重点，我们看好智能驾驶已闭环的华为、小鹏，此外小米、极氪、理想智驾表现亦值得期待。3）出海：技术+本地化共同驱动出海，自主空间广阔。2025 年自主车企将进一步加大出口和出海力度：长安、比亚迪等海外工厂逐步落地；长城在俄罗斯市场之外发力东南亚、南美等市场；零跑反向合资Stellantis，加速拓展欧洲新能源汽车市场。我们预计2025 年乘用车出口将达到580.0 万辆，同比+16.5%，提振自主盈利。自主新能源汽车技术具备优势+燃油汽车凭借性价比抢夺份额，我们预计中系品牌全球市占率远期可达18.1%，出口空间1,022 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