2024Q3互联网电商业绩总结：盈利能力持续提升平台投入积蓄主业增长动能

上海申银万国证...12-21 00:00

本期投资提示：平台聚焦用户体验，回归GMV 增长。据国家统计局，24Q3 社零总额实现11.8 万亿元，同比增长2.5%。线上零售额增速超过整体增长，24Q3 实物商品网上零售额实现3.1 万亿元，同比增长6.2%。国家政策刺激叠加各平台大促升级，“双十一”表现优于去年，前置效应明显。据星图数据，24 年双十一全周期大盘规模达14,418 亿元，同比大促周期增长26.6%（比较的时间周期：...

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比23.10.24-11.11）。直播红利减弱，生态互联互通，行业竞争趋于良性。流量红利的普适性下降，行业存量竞争的格局并未转变，但直播电商受冲击明显，增速已逐步放缓，传统电商份额有望停止流失，高达人佣金和流量推广支出叠加销售的降速，预计直播电商对商家的吸引力正在下降，传统电商份额让渡者的角色将逐渐转向。据晚点Latepost、第一财经，今年9月淘天集团宣布将新增微信支付功能，10 月菜鸟宣布全面接入京东非自营平台，京东商城开通支付宝支付。平台之间实现生态互联互通，挖掘潜力用户触达空间。本地生活业务格局稳定。即时零售方面，据弗若斯特沙利文，23 年即时配送服务订单规模达409亿单。以“快多好省”为价值排序，平台瞄准线上本地零售真空地带纷纷入局，美团充分利用更快的履约体系和更优的SKU 等先发优势抢占市场。到店业务方面，24 年来美团与抖音错位竞争，竞争格局基本稳定，预计Q3 抖音与美团将继续在本地生活领域的差异化竞争，共同实现业务的正向增长。平台优化营商环境，丰富广告工具，培育核心用户。24Q3 电商平台进一步调整商家规则，拼多多、阿里陆续放宽仅退款、售后申诉条件，减轻商家经营负担，调和消费者、商家之间的权益与体验平衡，实现长期可持续发展。同时，平台丰富广告工具，阿里全站推广上线提振商家营销效率，拼多多7 月底平台改进广告产品，正式融合全站推广和标准推广为商品推广，货币化率稳中有升。在流量红利达到拐点后，具有高消费能力和高活跃性的用户资产是稀缺资源，淘天、京东和美团积极布局会员服务培育核心用户群体，增强平台粘性，带动购频/客单价/交易用户多维增长，驱动长期GMV。平台加速布局中东与日韩市场，应对单一市场不确定性。24 前三季度中国跨境电商进出口增长11.5%，电商出海行业景气度抬升，但大选后美国风险不确定性落地，为应对国家/地区政策变化，电商平台在扩大全球化布局的同时逐步增加重点市场投入，开辟东南亚、中东市场，减少对单一市场依赖。据Similarweb，24 年8-10 月Temu/速卖通/shein/Tiktok shop 网站总访问量分别约计20.0/16.8/6.1/0.03 亿次，继续保持增长态势。同时，海外黑五大促完美收官，Tiktok Shop 业绩表现亮眼，据Tiktok Shop 黑五战报，黑五期间美区GMV 增长176%，较去年黑五大促增长超3 倍。盈利能力提升，秉持长期主义，聚焦主业投入。据公司公告，阿里CMR/京东零售/拼多多广告/拼多多佣金/美团核心本地商业收入增速为2.5%/6.1%/24.3%/71.5%/20.2%，环比+1.9/+4.6/-5.1/-162.6/+1.7pct。24Q3 各平台专注对关键业务和战略布局的投入，以期在激烈的市场竞争中获得优势，同时聚焦主业，非核心业务加速减亏。投资分析意见：24 年终端消费呈现温和增长趋势，线上消费持续领跑社零大盘增长，渗透率不断提高。头部电商平台专注核心业务发展，互联互通打通平台生态，竞争格局更加健康。电商强调用户体验提升和核心业务市场份额增长，加大投入，积极优化营商环境，改善平台生态，积蓄长期增长动能。平台加大投入的同时，注重商业化能力稳定与提升，实现增长与利润之间的平衡，盈利能力持续提升。此外，各平台坚持出海增量开拓，加快全球化进程，逐步增加中东等新兴重点市场投入，分摊局部地区风险。我们看好电商平台增量开拓与存量运营并重，持续投入蓄力转化为实质长期增长动能。推荐：阿里巴巴、京东、美团、拼多多。风险提示：居民消费不及预期，行业竞争加剧，海外业务发展不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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2024Q3互联网电商业绩总结：盈利能力持续提升 平台投入积蓄主业增长动能

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2024Q3互联网电商业绩总结：盈利能力持续提升平台投入积蓄主业增长动能