K药“药王”宝座将到期？Nature子刊预测司美格鲁肽合计销售额明年或超越它

每日经济新闻2024-12-24

据报道，《Nature》旗下杂志近日刊发了一份2025年药物销售预测。该报告预测，从单药角度看，默沙东旗下帕博利珠单抗（Keytruda，以下简称K药）销售额将于2025年达到309.9亿美元，有望卫冕“药王”宝座。　　诺和诺德的“降糖版”司美格鲁肽和礼来的降糖版替尔泊肽（均属于GLP-1制剂）紧随其后。如果将司美格鲁的“降糖版”和“减重版”合计计算，两款剂型药物销售额合计将达到356.1亿美元，...

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href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202412243277833932.html><strong>每日经济新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据报道，《Nature》旗下杂志近日刊发了一份2025年药物销售预测。该报告预测，从单药角度看，默沙东旗下帕博利珠单抗（Keytruda，以下简称K药）销售额将于2025年达到309.9亿美元，有望卫冕“药王”宝座。　　诺和诺德的“降糖版”司美格鲁肽和礼来的降糖版替尔泊肽（均属于GLP-1制剂）紧随其后。如果将司美格鲁的“降糖版”和“减重版”合计计算，两款剂型药物销售额合计将达到356.1亿美元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202412243277833932.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2112291526.USD","symbol_name":"BGF WORLD HEALTHSCIENCE \"A4\" (USD) 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Nature sub-journal predicts that the total sales of semaglutide may surpass it next year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MRK":1},"content_text":"据报道，《Nature》旗下杂志近日刊发了一份2025年药物销售预测。该报告预测，从单药角度看，默沙东旗下帕博利珠单抗（Keytruda，以下简称K药）销售额将于2025年达到309.9亿美元，有望卫冕“药王”宝座。　　诺和诺德的“降糖版”司美格鲁肽和礼来的降糖版替尔泊肽（均属于GLP-1制剂）紧随其后。如果将司美格鲁的“降糖版”和“减重版”合计计算，两款剂型药物销售额合计将达到356.1亿美元，取代K药成为“药王”。　　也就是说，以K药为代表的肿瘤药物和以GLP-1（胰高糖素样肽-1）制剂为代表的非肿瘤药物将竞争下一任“药王”。 图片来源：医药魔方　　司美格鲁肽制剂合计销售额有望超越K药 　　2024年即将结束，意味着今年的药物销售竞赛告一段落。　　近日，《Nature》旗下的《Nature Reviews Drug Discovery》期刊发布了一份简报，对2025年药物销售额TOP10的产品进行了预测。　　这份报告显示，默沙东的K药被预测为2025年销售排行第一名，被预测为第二名的为诺和诺德旗下的降糖版司美格鲁肽制剂（Ozempic），第三名则为礼来旗下的降糖版替尔泊肽制剂（Mounjaro）。　　值得注意的是，在这张预测榜单上，虽然K药保住了“药王”位置，但如果将外界认为的最大竞争者——降糖版司美格鲁肽和减重版司美格鲁肽（Wegovy）的销售额加起来计算，司美格鲁肽制剂的销售额将达到356.1亿美元，则超越K药的预测销售额309.9亿美元。　　如按照前述预测合计销售额计算，努力近10年、刚坐上全球“药王”宝座两年的K药将让位。更何况，这份榜单中还未预测口服降糖版司美格鲁肽制剂（Rybelsus）的销售额，如果将三种剂型合计统计，司美格鲁肽有极大希望登顶全球“药王”。　　值得注意的是，与司美格鲁肽同属于GLP-1制剂的替尔泊肽也显示出不俗潜力。据预测，降糖版替尔泊肽与减重版替尔泊肽（Zepbound）的合计销售额预计将达到311亿美元。　　肿瘤药物与GLP-1药物竞逐“药王” 　　从这份报告来看，2025年的“药王”争霸注定是一场肿瘤药物和非肿瘤药物的竞赛。　　据报道，今年上半年，K药卖了142.17亿美元。而司美格鲁肽三种剂型合计销售额为129.60亿美元。虽然K药保持领先，但优势并不明显。礼来减重版替尔泊肽上市时间较晚，上半年销售额为17.61亿美元，降糖版替尔泊肽销售额为48.97亿美元，合计为超66亿美元。　　降糖和减重两大市场点燃了GLP-1赛道，持续增长的销售额说明该赛道的含金量还在持续上升。近日，默沙东也出手引进了一款国产GLP-1药物。这款药物为翰森制药（HK03692）旗下的口服小分子GLP-1受体激动剂HS-10535。虽然该药物的适应症、研究数据等未公开，但在翰森制药的新闻稿中，默沙东方面评论称：“HS-10535的潜力包括在减重以外提供额外心脏代谢益处的可能性。”由此可见，默沙东看中了这款在研药物的减重、心脏获益潜力。　　默沙东并非刚开始布局GLP-1制剂。根据医药魔方数据库，默沙东此前共布局了5个GLP-1项目，最早的临床登记时间可以追溯到2010年。其中除GLP-1R/GCGR（胰高血糖素受体）双重激动剂“Efinopegdutide”是外部创新所得，其他都为自研，然而最早布局的3个自研产品均未能上市。　　GLP-1制剂之间的互不相让，也将成为药物市场的一大看点。从上半年数据看，虽然替尔泊肽与司美格鲁肽的销售额仍有一定差距，但随着替尔泊肽上市时间增加，二者差距有望进一步缩小。　　今年4月，礼来宣布了一项临床试验的结果。据称，在这场试验中，与减重版司美格鲁肽相比，减重版替尔泊肽的相对减肥效果高出47%。平均而言，减重版替尔泊肽的减肥效果（患者体重减轻比例）优于减重版司美格鲁肽的13.7%，为20.2%。这场“头（部）对头（部）”试验的结果，将在一定程度上影响二者的竞争格局。而这只是二者竞争加剧的一个缩影，双方在产能、适应症方面的比拼也在同步进行。　　除K药和GLP-1药物外之外，畅销药榜单常客Dupixent（度普利尤单抗）和Skyrizi（利生奇珠单抗）两款自免药物也仍在榜单中，位居第4、第5位。（文章来源：每日经济新闻）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2493035802"}