美联储又错了？高盛：就业市场并不乐观

华尔街见闻12-20 10:32

美联储的“鹰派”降息被抨击了。近日，高盛分析师发布报告称，就业市场的最新数据并不乐观，就业率创纪录暴跌暗示失业率飙升，经济衰退迫在眉睫。高盛认为，“鲍威尔犯了一个大错误”。仅仅三个月前，美联储还大幅降息了50个基点以“抵御经济衰退”，而如今却突然由“愤怒的鸽派”转向了“好战的鹰派”。高盛外汇策略师Steve Englander质疑道：“如果你们要如此鹰派，那当初为何还要降息？”高盛认为，美联储做出...

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Goldman Sachs: Job Market Is Not Promising","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"美联储的“鹰派”降息被抨击了。近日，高盛分析师发布报告称，就业市场的最新数据并不乐观，就业率创纪录暴跌暗示失业率飙升，经济衰退迫在眉睫。高盛认为，“鲍威尔犯了一个大错误”。仅仅三个月前，美联储还大幅降息了50个基点以“抵御经济衰退”，而如今却突然由“愤怒的鸽派”转向了“好战的鹰派”。高盛外汇策略师Steve Englander质疑道：“如果你们要如此鹰派，那当初为何还要降息？”高盛认为，美联储做出了灾难性的政策决定，并且错误选择了其鹰派转向的时机，这是因为“客观的第三方劳动力市场追踪数据显示，就业市场出现了崩溃的迹象”。高盛经济学家Manuel Abecasis指出，自9月以来，失业工人在一个月内找到工作的比例下降了7%至21%，创下有记录以来最大的两个月降幅，也是自2014年以来的最低水平。而该就业率的急剧下降可能引发人们对失业率即将大幅上升的担忧。高盛试图解释这一经济衰退信号，提出了三个可能的因素：首先，外籍工人的就业率大幅下降，在最近几个月下降了约10%，占就业率总降幅的约2个百分点。而特朗普2.0政府可能施行的移民政策，可能使雇主更不愿意雇用这些工人。其次，贸易和运输工人的就业率下降了约10%，占总就业率下降的另外2%，部分原因是11月感恩节假期带来的季节性波动，拖累工作岗位减少了2.8万个。第三，11月份65岁及以上失业工人退休人数的增加，导致这一年龄段的就业率大幅下降，较9月份的水平下降了约15%，比2019年平均水平低13%，而这又占了总就业率降幅的1%。不过，尽管这三个因素可以解释自9月以来就业率下降的5%，但结合费城联储银行的最新数据可发现，第二季度就业岗位的增加率为负值，并对之前报告的1.1%增长进行了大幅下修。高盛表示，过去一年就业率的稳步下降与2024年显著放松且“尚未稳定”的劳动力市场一致，这可能预示着劳动力市场衰退的临近，甚至可能已经到来。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2492595534"}