ASIC火爆，科技巨头角逐3纳米项目！大摩：台积电将参与所有生产，世芯电子上升空间更大

华尔街见闻12-17 16:38

摩根士丹利认为，尽管面临英伟达GPU的竞争，AI ASIC（应用专用集成电路）市场将继续扩张，3nm项目将成为关键竞争领域。大摩分析师Charlie Chan在12月15日的研报中表示，ASIC市场规模将继续增长，预计在2024—2027年期间，AI ASIC市场规模将从120亿美元增长至300亿美元，其中3nm项目将成为关键竞争领域。分析师表示，ASIC多个关键的3nm项目正接近敲定，其中...

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Morgan Stanley: TSMC will participate in all production, and Shixin Electronics has more room for growth","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XMAG":1,"TSM":1,"ON":1,"META":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"NVDA":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，尽管面临英伟达GPU的竞争，AI ASIC（应用专用集成电路）市场将继续扩张，3nm项目将成为关键竞争领域。\n大摩分析师Charlie Chan在12月15日的研报中表示，ASIC市场规模将继续增长，预计在2024—2027年期间，AI ASIC市场规模将从120亿美元增长至300亿美元，其中3nm项目将成为关键竞争领域。\n分析师表示，ASIC多个关键的3nm项目正接近敲定，其中包括亚马逊AWS的3nm Trainium项目、Google的3nm TPU项目、Microsoft的3nm Maia200项目和Meta的3nm AI网络项目。台积电有望继续从中获益，但考虑到业务敞开及短期催化上涨潜力，世芯电子更值得投资者关注。\n\n世芯、Marvell等厂商是主要玩家\n在AWS 3nm Trainium 项目方面，世芯电子和Marvell正展开激烈竞争，Marvell 在CoWoS分配上有所增加。\n大摩资深电子分析师乔・摩尔表示，Marvell的CoWoS分配量提高到约7万片，这意味着约120万颗Trainium芯片，包括Trainium2.5，后者正迁移到HBM以获取更大的内存密度。\n分析认为，Trainium2 市场规模正在继续扩大（增长30%），这对世芯电子未来 Trainium3的市场规模是个好兆头。世芯电子良好的执行力，使其可能负责 3nm后端设计服务。下一轮2nm项目（Trainium4）将见证世芯电子与Marvell 之间的新一轮竞争，但该项目的授标要到 2025年下半年才能确定。\n而在Google 3nm TPU项目上，联发科则在取得进展。\n目前谷歌 TPU v7 3nm项目因客户设计计划出现延迟，预计于2026年进入量产。鉴于其高性能，该项目更侧重于训练。同时博通将在2026年推出另一个侧重于推理的TPU版本，其在推理方面可能更高效。\n而在微软3nm Maia200项目上，Marvell 在该项目的增强版上具有优势。创意电子虽在加密挖矿芯片需求增长，但在该项目上份额减少。\n博通与世芯电子同时在竞争Meta 3nm人工智能网络项目。\nMTIA v3 人工智能加速器应 2026年迁移到HBM和CoWoS，并继续使用晶心科技的 RISC-V IP。行业调研表明，Meta 不仅在为人工智能数据中心定制交换机网络（链路），还在定制 RDMA 类型的网络芯片。鉴于博通强大的 SerDes IP，大摩认为它应该是首选。\n首选股从台积电转向世芯电子\n大摩认为，尽管台积电依然从3nm项目中获益，但世芯电子可能是更好的选择。\n分析师表示，目前台积电生产上述所有ASIC芯片。台积电将在2025年为ASIC分配27%的CoWoS产能，利润率更高。到2026 年，人工智能半导体总收入将占其收入的 30%。\n\n但对于投资者来说，短期内世芯电子可能更值得关注（短期催化剂更强，上涨空间更好）。\n供应链调查显示，台积电将于2025 年下半年为Annapurna Lab分配CoWoS - R封装产能，这可能世芯电子的3nm芯片生产有关。这与亚马逊AWS近期宣布将于2025年末推出 Trainium3的消息相呼应。\n分析师强调，在2025年初的 3nm项目流片将会成为一个强有力的股价催化剂 —— 它有助于减轻投资者对于来自Marvell在 3nm项目上竞争的担忧。随着全球人工智能资本支出的扩大，以及世芯电子与台积电、知识产权供应商和人工智能客户之间的稳固合作关系，其强劲的增长势头应该会在2026年得以恢复。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2492593851"}