【招银研究|海外宏观】小幅反弹——美国CPI通胀数据点评（2024年11月）

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作者：招商银行研究院纽约分行11月美国CPI通胀数据符合预期。CPI同比增速上行0.1pct至2.7%（市场预期2.7%）；环比增速0.3%（市场预期0.3%）；核心CPI同比增速保持在3.3%（市场预期3.3%），环比增速0.3%（市场预期0.3%）。图1：11月美国CPI通胀读数小幅反弹资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院尽管读数边际反弹，但住房服务通胀仍有回落空间，短期看总通胀或...

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纽约分行11月美国CPI通胀数据符合预期。CPI同比增速上行0.1pct至2.7%（市场预期2.7%）；环比增速0.3%（市场预期0.3%）；核心CPI同比增速保持在3.3%（市场预期3.3%），环比增速0.3%（市场预期0.3%）。图1：11月美国CPI通胀读数小幅反弹资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院尽管读数边际反弹，但住房服务通胀仍有回落空间，短期看总通胀或再度回落，降息周期大概率持续至明年一季度。从中长期看，美国通胀并无稳定在2%下方的客观条件，美联储或于明年二季度结束本轮降息。一、总览：整体反弹，结构转换美国CPI通胀连续第2个月反弹。在经历3-9月的持续下行后，10月美国CPI通胀反弹0.2pct至2.6%，11月再反弹0.1pct至2.7%。从结构看，“强服务，弱商品”格局边际松动。一方面，持续通缩之下，商品消费保持超趋势增长，商品价格逐渐止跌，环比转为正增。另一方面，住房服务通胀开始软化，非房服务通胀继续回落，服务通胀读数相应回落。图2：美国商品消费保持超趋势增长资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院二、服务通胀：继续回落服务通胀继续回落，住房服务分项环比动能开始软化。楼市降温传导至通胀读数，住房服务通胀环比读数跌至0.3%。11月住房服务CPI通胀回落0.2pct至4.7%，核心服务CPI通胀相应回落0.2pct至4.6%。从分项看，主要住所租金（RPR）和业主等价租金（OER）同比增速分别回落至4.4%和4.9%。当前Zillow租金同比增速维持在3.4%附近，考虑到即期租金向通胀读数传导的滞后性，后续住房服务通胀仍有回落空间。图3：住房服务分项主导服务通胀回落资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院图4：美国住房服务通胀仍有回落空间资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院非房服务通胀亦在软化。11月非房服务通胀回落0.3pct至4.3%。但从环比读数看，主要服务业分项价格普遍高增，背后是旺盛消费需求与高企薪资增速的双重支撑。前瞻地看，考虑到薪资增速已经止跌企稳，叠加美国消费保持稳步扩张态势，未来非房服务通胀回落空间非常有限，住房服务通胀或驱动核心服务通胀回落至4%附近。图5：美国薪资增速仍然保持高位资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院三、商品通缩：继续收窄美国商品通缩持续收窄，不再是去通胀的边际贡献项。11月核心商品CPI同比增速回升0.4pct至-0.6%，未来有望进一步收窄。从结构看，汽油和家具物资是商品通缩见底的主要托举。汽油CPI同比增速回升4.1pct至-8.4%，家具物资回升1.2pct至-1.0%。二手车环比增速有所放缓，从2.7%下降0.7pct至2.0%。图6：主要商品同比通缩开始收窄资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院商品通缩已经持续5个月，叠加持续降价带来商品消费的加速扩张，对进一步降价构成限制。Q3美国商品消费环比年化增速升至6.0%，创2023Q2以来新高，远高于服务消费增速（2.6%）。短期看商品通胀读数或逐步向0靠拢，长期需警惕特朗普政府加征关税对商品价格的提振，不能排除商品通胀大幅上行的可能性。加征关税可能带来贸易伙伴的对等反制，引发全球关税上行，从根本上扭转美国商品通缩的现状，加剧总体通胀压力。四、市场：小幅转鹰虽然10月通胀数据保持韧性，但没有超出市场预期，总体交易小幅偏鹰。美元隔夜利率曲线（OIS）暗示美联储12月降息概率约为98%，暗示着下周降息25bp已成定局。美国国债收益率全面上涨。2年期上涨1bp至4.15%，5年期上涨4bp至4.13%，10年期上涨5bp至4.27%，30年期上升6bp至4.48%。国债收益率曲线渐陡（2s10s曲线：+3.7bp，5s30s曲线：+2.8bp）。美元继续走强。美元指数上升0.3%至106.710，美元兑换离岸人民币汇率上升至7.2766。美股三大指数涨跌不一。标普500收涨0.82%，纳斯达克收涨1.77%于历史新高，道琼斯指数收跌0.22%。五、影响及前瞻：短期仍有降息空间通胀数据符合预期，12月美联储大概率按计划执行25bp降息。住房服务通胀仍将驱动总通胀进一步回落，明年一季度美联储或仍将执行1-2次25bp降息。经济及就业形势不支持美国通胀稳定回落至2%下方，明年二季度降息周期可能终结，不排除特朗普政策引发二次通胀并带来再加息的可能性。查看原图 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