国泰君安2025年纺服行业策略：关注以旧换新政策力度静待销售改善

智通财经12-06

智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报称，自10月下旬以来以旧换新政策范围持续扩大，线上及线下渠道均可享受政策优惠，龙头品牌服饰率先受益，其中10月至今线上表现优于品牌服饰其他子板块，2025年展望乐观。顺周期上看，渠道稳步扩张，若终端消费环境有所改善，有望迎来估值及业绩修复的戴维斯双击。纺织制造方面，2024年户外代工赛道呈现高景气，考虑到下游客户库存处于低位，需求端持续向好，制造龙头积极布局...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2489797254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-12-06 14:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2489797254","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"国泰君安2025年纺服行业策略：关注以旧换新政策力度 静待销售改善","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报称，自10月下旬以来以旧换新政策范围持续扩大，线上及线下渠道均可享受政策优惠，龙头品牌服饰率先受益，其中10月至今线上表现优于品牌服饰其他子板块，2025年展望乐观。顺周期上看，渠道稳步扩张，若终端消费环境有所改善，有望迎来估值及业绩修复的戴维斯双击。纺织制造方面，2024年户外代工赛道呈现高景气，考虑到下游客户库存处于低位，需求端持续向好，制造龙头积极布局...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1221303.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国泰君安2025年纺服行业策略：关注以旧换新政策力度 静待销售改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国泰君安2025年纺服行业策略：关注以旧换新政策力度 静待销售改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-06 14:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1221303.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报称，自10月下旬以来以旧换新政策范围持续扩大，线上及线下渠道均可享受政策优惠，龙头品牌服饰率先受益，其中10月至今线上表现优于品牌服饰其他子板块，2025年展望乐观。顺周期上看，渠道稳步扩张，若终端消费环境有所改善，有望迎来估值及业绩修复的戴维斯双击。纺织制造方面，2024年户外代工赛道呈现高景气，考虑到下游客户库存处于低位，需求端持续向好，制造龙头积极布局...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1221303.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"601211","symbol_name":"国泰君安","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1221303.html","article_id":"2489797254","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2489797254","pubTimestamp":1733466625,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"3)顺周期主线：渠道稳步扩张，若终端消费环境有所改善，有望迎来估值及业绩修复的戴维斯双击。纺织制造板块2024年户外代工赛道呈现高景气，考虑到下游客户库存处于低位，需求端持续向好，制造龙头积极布局东南亚海外产能，随着产能爬坡，业绩弹性有望释放。风险提示终端消费需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，原材料价格波动风险。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"601211":"国泰君安","BK1502":"双十一","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK1227":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","BK0201":"可转债","BK0012":"证金概念","SG9999004311.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Emerging Enterprise Discovery Fund SGD","BK1564":"中资券商股","03306":"江南布衣","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","02611":"国泰君安","BK0276":"资本市场","BK0184":"上海国资改革","BK0028":"国家队","BK0188":"融资融券"},"translate_title":"Guotai Junan's textile and clothing industry strategy in 2025: Pay attention to the trade-in policy and wait for sales to improve","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601211":1,"02611":1,"03306":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报称，自10月下旬以来以旧换新政策范围持续扩大，线上及线下渠道均可享受政策优惠，龙头品牌服饰率先受益，其中10月至今线上表现优于品牌服饰其他子板块，2025年展望乐观。顺周期上看，渠道稳步扩张，若终端消费环境有所改善，有望迎来估值及业绩修复的戴维斯双击。纺织制造方面，2024年户外代工赛道呈现高景气，考虑到下游客户库存处于低位，需求端持续向好，制造龙头积极布局东南亚海外产能，随着产能爬坡，业绩弹性有望释放。国泰君安主要观点如下：行情回顾品牌服饰：Q1终端销售弱复苏，Q2在高基数下零售压力显现，H2销售持续走弱，但品牌表现分化，例如部分品牌受双十一催化销售略有改善，家纺品牌受以旧换新政策拉动，其线上表现优于同行。纺织制造：从订单景气度来看，户外代工>；新材料>；传统棉纺产业链，户外代工产业链处于高景气。Q2以来下游客户库存逐渐恢复健康，补库周期已至，景气度持续向好。品牌服饰板块销售静待改善，品牌端延续分化，建议关注三条主线：1)家纺以旧换新主线：自10月下旬以来以旧换新政策范围持续扩大，线上及线下渠道均可享受政策优惠，龙头品牌率先受益，其中10月至今线上表现优于品牌服饰其他子板块，2025年展望乐观。2)高股息主线：终端折扣平稳，渠道效率持续提升，Q4销售环比改善，2025年基本面稳中向好，高分红提供安全边际。3)顺周期主线：渠道稳步扩张，若终端消费环境有所改善，有望迎来估值及业绩修复的戴维斯双击。纺织制造板块2024年户外代工赛道呈现高景气，考虑到下游客户库存处于低位，需求端持续向好，制造龙头积极布局东南亚海外产能，随着产能爬坡，业绩弹性有望释放。展望中长期，东南亚产能具备稀缺性，制造龙头在客户中的份额有望稳步提升。标的方面品牌服饰：家纺补贴政策催化，基本面稳中向好，推荐水星家纺(603365.SH)、罗莱生活(603155.SH)、富安娜(002327.SZ)；高股息标的，推荐森马服饰(002563.SZ)、海澜之家(600398.SH)、江南布衣(03306)；顺周期消费龙头，若消费政策持续催化，估值有望迎来修复，推荐报喜鸟(002154.SZ)、比音勒芬(002832.SZ)。纺织制造：户外代工产业链景气度持续向好，当前下游库存回归健康，订单需求旺盛；中长期来看海外产能布局优势凸显，客户份额有望提升。推荐浙江自然(605080.SH)、健盛集团(603558.SH)。风险提示终端消费需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，原材料价格波动风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2489797254"}

国泰君安2025年纺服行业策略：关注以旧换新政策力度 静待销售改善

精彩评论

国泰君安2025年纺服行业策略：关注以旧换新政策力度静待销售改善