高盛警告！美股衍生品市场正出现“史无前例”的异常状态摩根士丹利：美元做空时机已到

东方财富12-08

本周，美股三大指数涨跌不一。道指下跌；纳指、标普500指数上涨，二者均为连续第三周上涨。下周五（12月13日），纳斯达克100指数将公布年度成分股调整结果，Palantir、MSTR、Coinbase等热门股有望入选。高盛近日发出警告，美股衍生品市场正在出现“史无前例”的异常状态——标普500指数期权保护成本创下近三十年新低。摩根士丹利发布的最新报告表示，美元做空时机已经到来。目前美元利好因素已被...

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The U.S. stock derivatives market is experiencing an \"unprecedented\" abnormal state Morgan Stanley: The time has come to short the dollar","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":1,"GS":0.9},"content_text":"本周，美股三大指数涨跌不一。道指下跌；纳指、标普500指数上涨，二者均为连续第三周上涨。下周五（12月13日），纳斯达克100指数将公布年度成分股调整结果，Palantir、MSTR、Coinbase等热门股有望入选。高盛近日发出警告，美股衍生品市场正在出现“史无前例”的异常状态——标普500指数期权保护成本创下近三十年新低。摩根士丹利发布的最新报告表示，美元做空时机已经到来。目前美元利好因素已被充分消化，而市场普遍看多美元的一致预期反而暗示着\"痛苦交易\"可能即将来临。本周美股三大指数涨跌不一本周，道指累计下跌0.6%；纳指上涨3.34%、标普500指数上涨0.96%，二者均为连续第三周上涨。美国劳工统计局周五发布报告称，随着美国东南部大规模罢工的结束和几次猛烈风暴的影响消退，美国11月份的创造就业数量从上个月的几近停滞中反弹。数据显示，美国11月非农就业人数增加22.7万人，接受道琼斯调查的分析师平均预期值为21.4万。10月非农就业数据向上修正了3.6万人。11月份的失业率小幅上升至4.2%，符合市场预期。工人工资继续上涨，11月份的平均时薪比一个月前增长0.4%，较去年同期增长4%。这两个数字都比预期高出0.1个百分点。由于就业数据近来起伏不定，经济学家高度关注过去三个月的非农平均增长。这一数字报17.3万人。投资者关注这份重要的劳动力市场数据，以进一步判断美联储本月晚些时候的政策举措。分析认为，美国11月就业增长在受到飓风和罢工的严重干扰后大幅飙升，但这可能并不意味着就业市场状况出现实质性转变，就业形势预计继续稳步放缓，并使美联储得以在本月再次降息。下周纳指成分股将调整美东时间下周五（12月13日），纳斯达克100指数将公布年度成分股调整结果，Palantir、MSTR、Coinbase等热门股有望入选。市场分析显示，Palantir Technologies、MicroStrategy、Equinix、CME Group、Interactive Brokers和Coinbase Global等市值领先的公司有望入选。值得注意的是，数据分析公司Palantir已于11月26日从纽交所转投至纳斯达克上市，此举被市场普遍解读为争取入选纳指重要战略布局，该公司在11月29日（调整评估日）的市值达到1520亿美元。被纳入纳斯达克100指数将为上市公司带来显著影响。一旦公司被纳入指数，往往会因指数基金和ETF管理人被动买入而带来股价上涨。与采用市值、盈利能力和行业分类等多维度评估标准的标普500指数不同，纳指的成分股调整主要着眼于市值表现。目前，指数中市值最低的成分股区间在166亿美元至238亿美元之间，仅占指数总市值不到0.1%，这些公司面临被调出的风险。在去年12月的年度调整中，共有7家公司被纳入，同时7家公司被调出指数。另外，纳指成分股调整并非仅限于年度一次。今年11月，作为纳斯达克市值最大的非指数成分股，AppLovin就通过临时调整替代Dollar Tree，成功进入纳指。高盛：美股衍生品市场\"史无前例\"异象美股杠杆需求飙升，投资组合保护成本却处于“一代人难遇”的低位。高盛衍生品交易专家布莱恩·加勒特近日发出警告，美股衍生品市场正在出现“史无前例”的异常状态——标普500指数期权保护成本创下近三十年新低。具体数据显示，一个月100%执行价的看跌期权成本仅为95个基点，这意味着标普500指数仅需下跌50点就能实现盈亏平衡。与低廉的对冲成本形成鲜明对比的，是当前美股融资需求的高企——衡量股票融资需求的AXW利差已攀升至接近2008年金融危机前水平。分析认为，这反映出市场在追逐收益的同时，对潜在风险的警惕性却处于极低水平。摩根士丹利：美元做空时机已到美东时间12月6日，摩根士丹利发布的最新报告表示，美元做空时机已经到来。该行认为，目前美元利好因素已被充分消化，而市场普遍看多美元的一致预期反而暗示着\"痛苦交易\"可能即将来临。该行分析认为，做空美元的理由主要有三个：首先，尽管美国经济表现强劲，但这些利好因素已被市场充分定价；其次，市场可能过度反应了贸易政策变化带来的影响；最后，市场对美联储降息预期过于保守，而对海外央行的降息预期则可能过高。（文章来源：中国证券报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2489203286"}

高盛警告！美股衍生品市场正出现“史无前例”的异常状态 摩根士丹利：美元做空时机已到

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高盛警告！美股衍生品市场正出现“史无前例”的异常状态摩根士丹利：美元做空时机已到