自信进军 AI 代理领域，Salesforce又行了？

美股研究社12-03

作者 | JR Research编译 | 华尔街大事件2024 年 6 月勇敢面对市场悲观情绪的Salesforce ( NYSE: CRM ) 投资者获得了回报。自那时以来，这家领先的企业 SaaS 公司的股票表现远远优于市场。因此，过去六个月，市场的注意力也转向了软件股。因此，市场“悄悄地”从半导体股中重新配置，帮助 iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ...

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增长拐点的下一阶段中获益的机会变得更加乐观。现有企业客户预计将从 CRM 试验转向部署，这凸显了 Salesforce 以其数据云为基础的专有优势。此外，Salesforce 强调它可以采用基于消费的定价模式来缓解影响其典型每席位定价限制的挑战。Salesforce 的整体解决方案生态系统也有望帮助企业更有效地利用 Gen AI。因此，在没有强大的 CRM 企业基础的情况下，市场份额被纯粹的 Gen AI 企业夺走的说法似乎有些言过其实。Salesforce 提高运营杠杆的能力并没有被分析师忽视。因此，华尔街对Salesforce的估值已经上调，增强了其对这家软件领导者推动盈利增长能力的信心。因此，市场并不太担心预期的营收增长放缓，因为 Gen AI 预计将帮助促进其基本盈利能力的增长。华尔街的乐观是恰当的，因为该公司有信心调整其定价模型以反映其 AI 解决方案的价值。此外，其专有数据优势应为该公司提供展示Agentic AI 有效性的机会。尽管如此，投资者仍应考虑公司可能将更多支出转移到纯 AI 公司的影响，这会影响 Salesforce 非 Gen AI 产品和服务的增长前景。此外，鉴于 Agentic AI 格局的快速发展，来自微软和 ServiceNow 的威胁可能会加剧。然而，观察到的AI 扩展的局限性可能增强了Salesforce的前景，因为领先的 LLM 公司面临着更昂贵的扩展其 AI 模型的要求，同时面临着模型训练收益递减的前景。Salesforce的“F”级估值证实了过去三个月以来的估值重估论。此外，其动量级的提升（从“C+”升至“B+”）凸显了市场对其看涨论的乐观态度。Salesforce的远期调整后 PEG 比率为 2.11，比其科技板块 ( XLK ) 中值高出 10% 以上。因此，该股远未被高估，表明它仍有回调时买入的潜力。尽管如此，与我之前的更新相比，其估值显然没有那么有吸引力。Salesforce的价格走势仍处于长期上升趋势，证实了其看涨论点。2023 年 10 月和 2024 年 6 月低点的强劲底部表明市场对购买Salesforce大幅回调的信心。该股能够在 2024 年 11 月创下新高，标志着其较 6 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