成熟制程，山雨欲来！

半导体芯闻11-27

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~来源：内容来自镜周刊，谢谢。知名半导体分析师陆行之日前在脸书上指出，“我看未来10年，联电的隐忧是担心获利率可能归零。”外资从10月以来，卖超联电张数更已经超过70万张，显示外界担心中国内地成熟制程产能大量开出，对于联电未来营运将会带来明显冲击。对此，联电回应表示，公司一直不断提升技术竞争力，提供更符合客户需求的解决方案，例如联电与英特尔合作开发12纳米...

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收藏哦~来源：内容来自镜周刊，谢谢。知名半导体分析师陆行之日前在脸书上指出，“我看未来10年，联电的隐忧是担心获利率可能归零。”外资从10月以来，卖超联电张数更已经超过70万张，显示外界担心中国内地成熟制程产能大量开出，对于联电未来营运将会带来明显冲击。对此，联电回应表示，公司一直不断提升技术竞争力，提供更符合客户需求的解决方案，例如联电与英特尔合作开发12纳米平台。此外，在AMOLED高阶显示器驱动芯片上，联电不仅拥有领先地位，相信我们的策略可以持续维持竞争力。一位不愿具名的财经官员警告，“明年1月川普上台后，如果真的对中国内地课征60％关税，为了求生的中国内地政府与业者，必定会有反制之道。”该官员更忧心，目前中国台湾业者还没有注意到此一问题，“我看未来10年，联电的隐忧是担心获利率可能归零。”资深半导体分析师陆行之在脸书粉丝专页不客气地写道。不仅如此，就连台积电也可能受害，“台积电的隐忧是，继续流失成熟制程的分额（市场占有率），2021年台积电在成熟制程的分额是70到75％，今年是64到65％，分额流失的一大隐忧，是让中过晶圆厂继续往先进制程迈进。”陆行之认为，中国内地全面掌握成熟制程后，下一步势必威胁台积电在先进制程的地位。也难怪即便今年第3季联电获利高达144.7亿元，估计全年每股获利（EPS）还可赚进4.5元，陆行之一句“联电未来获利率可能归零”，已让敏感的外资，10月一路出脱联电股票毫不手软，累计1个多月来卖超已超过70万张，股价更从55元，杀到只剩44.4元，与疫情期间飙破70元，简直就是天壤之别。至于拥有母公司台积电技术支援当靠山的世界先进，股价表现同样悲凄，一路从148元跌到88.8元，跌幅高达4成；力积电也跌到17.35元的新低，距离史上最高价的90元，下跌幅度更是惊人，都显示外界对于中国内地成熟制程大扩产后，引发明年的杀价竞争疑虑很深。对于中国内地成熟制程大军全面来袭，联电透过发言体系对本刊表示，“半导体产业确实面临前所未有的地缘政治挑战。面对不断变化的市场竞争，相信我们的策略可以持续维持竞争力。”联电主管强调，公司一直不断提升技术竞争力，提供更符合客户需求的解决方案，例如联电与英特尔合作开发12纳米平台。此外，在AMOLED高阶显示器驱动芯片上，联电不仅拥有领先地位，更比业界早推出22纳米嵌入式高压（eHV）技术平台，吸引多家客户在联电投片。“我们与客户的产品蓝图紧密连结，有信心以差异化技术，以及优越的制造能力，确保联电在市场脱颖而出，成为客户最佳选择的合作伙伴。”该主管说。虽然联电信心满满，但针对联电与英特尔的合作案，半导体业界却直接质疑，“英特尔都快挂了，12吋还走得下去吗？是要怎么合作？而且，明年不只中国内地厂商杀价，外资分析师都说，明年台积电成熟制程也会降价，并据此调降联电投资评等，显示外资对联电前景并不乐观。”专家：只剩台积电一家香包括中国内地半导体在内的晶圆厂产能大举开出，产能全部集中在成熟制程的联电和世界先进首当其冲，存储厂商更是提早进入寒冬，由于中国内地储存厂商不断扩大产能，存储价格传出比三星和美光便宜5成，受此冲击，南亚科和华邦电股价腰斩，在半导体造业当中，只剩下独家供应先进制程逻辑芯片的台积电屹立不摇，甚至获利仍在继续成长，形成万家烤肉一家香的局面。今年第3季联电获利高达144.7亿元，估计全年每股获利（EPS）还可赚进4.5元，陆行之一句“联电未来获利率可能归零”，已让敏感的外资，10月一路出脱联电股票毫不手软，累计一个多月来卖超已超过70万张，股价更从55元，杀到只剩44.4元，与疫情期间飙破70元，简直就是天壤之别。至于拥有母公司台积电技术支援当靠山的世界先进，股价表现同样悲凄，一路从148元跌到88.8元，跌幅高达4成；力积电也跌到17.35元的新低，距离史上最高价的90元，下跌幅度更是惊人，都显示外界对于中国内地成熟制程大扩产后，引发明年的杀价竞争疑虑很深。观察最新的DRAM和NAND快闪存储合约报价，已在短短1个月内，下跌近20％。“DRAM市场恐将从周期性高峰回落，最快在第4季反转向下。”外资摩根史坦利发布最新报告示警。受此消息冲击，中国台湾存储厂南亚科技股价从75.4元，一路腰斩到上周五只剩35.85元，另一家华邦电，也从38.9元跌到17.35元的新低，显示产业普遍面临极大挑战。中国内地猛虎强势来袭，让二线晶圆与存储同业惨兮兮，却仍无法撼动台积电在先进制程的地位。“目前5纳米以下的先进制程，只有台积电可以独家供应，就算川普上台提高关税，魏哲家仍可以透过涨价反映成本，让台积电获利持续成长，并形成万家烤肉一家香的局面。”半导体同业说。根据台积电财报显示，先进制程已占营收比重高达69％，完全可以抵销成熟制程的跌价问题，也难怪日前法说会上，魏哲家仍喊出：“台积电毛利率将维持57％到59％的目标。”相较于英特尔上一季的亏损持续扩大，三星的获利也低于预期，台积电完全展现领先群伦的王者之风。点这里 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