美股如日中天，对冲市场崩盘的需求却激增！

金十数据11-28

特朗普的政策风险让投资者坐立不安。尽管美国大选后的反弹使美股创下历史新高，但利用期权对冲股市崩盘风险的需求正在上升。本月早些时候特朗普胜选驱散了投资者对潜在争议性选举结果的担忧，推动标普500指数攀升至历史新高。衡量投资者恐慌程度的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）周二收于14.10的大选后低点附近。然而，几项衡量防范市场极端波动的指标正在回升，如Nations TailDex指数（TDEX）和...

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ETF信托基金（SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust）大幅波动的成本，目前已经比过去一年70%的时间都要高。Skew指数周一收于两个月高位167.28。该指数是另一个反映市场对行情极端波动可能性看法的指标。防范市场抛售的VIX看涨期权也显示出一些防范“尾部风险”的需求。根据Susquehanna Financial Group的分析，衡量这些合约需求强弱的VIX 3个月看涨期权偏度正徘徊在5年多来的最高水平附近。Susquehanna衍生品策略联席主管Chris Murphy称，“市场总体上认为有80-95%的可能性出现相当低的波动率，这就是VIX指数相对较低的原因，但更多的尾部风险被考虑在内。”瑞银（UBS）股票衍生品策略师Maxwell Grinacoff表示，特朗普周一的关税承诺是投资者可能担心在未来几个月再次遇到的那种风险。他说，“这让人们有理由再次开始对冲”，“你已经看到了下行对冲再次回归的更多迹象。”投资者还在努力应对美联储未来几个月降息程度的不确定性。由于官员们面临着强于预期的经济形势，如果过于放松货币政策，这可能会刺激通胀反弹。美联储将于12月17日至18日举行本年度最后一次货币政策会议。俄乌战争以及以色列与哈马斯之间的冲突也可能加剧市场波动。瑞银的Grinacoff表示，明年可能与2018年相似，当时股市在年初创下新高，但由于有关贸易和关税的头条新闻损害了增长预期，以及各资产类别的波动性上升，股市随后下滑。他说，投资者对下行保护的要求“在我看来是有道理的”。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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