高盛警告：特朗普的关税提案将推动美国核心PCE通胀上涨0.9%

华尔街见闻03:38

高盛表示，美国当选总统特朗普最新的关税提议可能会给该国通胀带来上行压力。周一，特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上表示，他将对来自加拿大和墨西哥的商品征收25%关税。美东时间11月26日周二，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在一份报告中指出，这一提议将显著推高美国的消费者价格。Hatzius解释说： “根据我们的经验，有效关税税率每增加1个百分点，美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735332><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛表示，美国当选总统特朗普最新的关税提议可能会给该国通胀带来上行压力。\n周一，特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上表示，他将对来自加拿大和墨西哥的商品征收25%关税。\n美东时间11月26日周二，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在一份报告中指出，这一提议将显著推高美国的消费者价格。Hatzius解释说：\n\n“根据我们的经验，有效关税税率每增加1个百分点，美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735332\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE0034235188.USD","symbol_name":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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Hatzius在一份报告中指出，这一提议将显著推高美国的消费者价格。Hatzius解释说：\n\n“根据我们的经验，有效关税税率每增加1个百分点，美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心PCE（个人消费支出物价指数）就会上涨0.1%。据此估计，如果实施这些关税提议的增幅，核心PCE通胀将上涨0.9%。”\n\n根据高盛的计算，特朗普声称将增加关税的国家占美国商品进口总额的43%，而这些关税将每年带来不到3000亿美元的收入。\n此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储将在关税和其他财政政策变化的具体细节明朗后，考虑这些因素对通胀走向的影响。目前美国通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，而新的关税提议可能会进一步拉大这一差距，打乱市场对美联储降息的预期。交易员们已开始减少对美联储2025年降息的预期。\n但是，是否会按照特朗普提议的关税水平来实际实施，仍然不确定。一方面，特朗普把这些关税提案与其他政策改革挂钩。特朗普在社交媒体上说，这些关税的实施条件之一是对移民政策和毒品执法进行改变。另一方面，特朗普的一些顾问和支持者认为，他在竞选期间提出的关税并不是最终的政策，而是一种谈判策略。\n展望未来，美国10月PCE数据将在周三发布，预计数据显示核心PCE同比增长2.8%。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"Policy And 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