特朗普关税威胁对美国经济意味着什么？从水果到汽车，一切价格都将上涨

华尔街见闻11-27

如果特朗普一意孤行，坚持对主要贸易伙伴征收高关税，那么这带来的恶果最终将由美国消费者承担——从新鲜水果、汽车到电子产品等所有商品价格上涨。当地时间周二，耶鲁大学预算实验室公布数据显示，特朗普关税政策以及其引发的报复性关税，将导致美国消费者价格（CPI）涨幅上行0.75个百分点。如果消费者转而购买美国国内产品或低关税进口产品，这一数字将降至0.65。按2023年美元计算，这意味着每个家庭的购买力...

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Everything from fruits to cars will go up in price","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EPS":1,"GM":0.75},"content_text":"如果特朗普一意孤行，坚持对主要贸易伙伴征收高关税，那么这带来的恶果最终将由美国消费者承担——从新鲜水果、汽车到电子产品等所有商品价格上涨。\n当地时间周二，耶鲁大学预算实验室公布数据显示，特朗普关税政策以及其引发的报复性关税，将导致美国消费者价格（CPI）涨幅上行0.75个百分点。如果消费者转而购买美国国内产品或低关税进口产品，这一数字将降至0.65。按2023年美元计算，这意味着每个家庭的购买力损失超过1000美元。\n据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间25日，美国当选总统特朗普表示，将对墨西哥和加拿大进入美国的所有产品征收25%关税。\n如果该关税政策落地，依赖进口的企业（尤其是汽车厂商）可能成本大幅增加的风险，而这些成本随后会转嫁给消费者。\n此外，如果按照特朗普竞选时承诺的更高关税估算，其带来的通胀效应将更加强烈。通胀即将出现拐点之际，特朗普的高关税政策无疑对明年的降息前景带来更多不确定性。\n值得注意的是，高关税带来的额外成本还将重创通用汽车、福特汽车和吉普车制造商Stellantis的利润，这些公司都在美国边境以南的地区生产汽车，依赖当地生产的零部件。\nEvercore ISI估计，新关税政策下，通用汽车和Stellantis的每股收益（EPS）将减少50%，福特将减少25%。这三家公司的股价周二均下跌，通用汽车股价一度大跌9%。\n\n拟议关税的时间定在1月份，美国零售联合会表示，这将对新鲜水果和蔬菜产生巨大影响。\n该行业组织负责政府关系的高级副总裁David French 表示，每从墨西哥进口价值100美元的鳄梨、西红柿、覆盆子、草莓和辣椒，美国进口商就将多付25%的税款；而墨西哥价值100亿美元的啤酒、龙舌兰酒和梅斯卡尔酒，进口商也将被征收25%的税款。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2486821634"}