瑞银向特斯拉估值风险“亮红灯”：股价“狂飙”源于市场情绪而非基本面

智通财经网11-27

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银分析师指出，特斯拉(TSLA.US)近期股价飙升主要是由市场情绪驱动，而非基本面因素。分析师们强调，特斯拉汽车业务估值占其总市值比例已低于近期平均水平，这种趋势在过去四年中只发生过两次，分别导致股价大幅回调30%和70%以上。目前，特斯拉的预期市盈率已达到100倍，明显高于过去两年的平均水平。这表明投资者需要坚定的信念才能继续增持该股。瑞银集团的约瑟夫·斯帕克(Joseph...

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Spak)指出，自大选以来，特斯拉的股价飙升了约40%，市值增加了3500多亿美元，公司市值达到1.1万亿美元的峰值。但他警告称，最近特斯拉股价上涨更多是受情绪驱动，即对美国新政府政策变化的乐观情绪，而不是公司基本面的改善。斯帕克写道：“特斯拉股价的上涨主要是由动物精神/动力驱动的(这种情况在特斯拉的历史上发生过多次)。”该报告表明，市场现在将特斯拉视为一家人工智能公司，而不是传统的电动汽车制造商。汽车和能源业务的估值约为每股52美元，而特斯拉的其他业务，包括人工智能、机器人出租车和Optimus，总估值为1万亿美元。目前，汽车业务仅占特斯拉总市值的12%，曾一度跌至10%。从历史上看，当这一比例达到17%左右的近期平均水平时，特斯拉的股价往往会进入“下行通道”。由于特斯拉的估值仍然很高，汽车业务能否实现预期利润仍不确定。该报告指出，自2022年以来，特斯拉的12个月预期市盈率在20至60倍之间波动，但现在超过了100倍。瑞银强调，投资者需要有非凡的信心才能在当前的价格水平上增持，比如相信特斯拉竖立的雄心勃勃的目标，即到2030年交付1550万辆汽车、部署780千兆瓦时的储能等远超当前市场预期的愿景。政策影响尚未可知斯帕克表示，虽然当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的一些政策建议可能有利于特斯拉，但也有一些政策负面因素，这将对基本面造成更大的伤害，而不是理论上的上涨给特斯拉带来的好处。在特朗普赢得大选后，投资者将特斯拉股价推至多年来高点。这主要得益于特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对特朗普的大力支持，而作为回报，特朗普非正式地将马斯克置于自己的核心圈子，允许他参加政策会议，并任命他管理一个政府效率委员会。特朗普还表示，由于马斯克的存在，他对电动汽车的看法有所改善，尽管过渡团队的报告称，联邦电动汽车税收抵免可能会被搁置。虽然取消税收抵免可能对特斯拉的竞争对手造成的伤害比特斯拉本身更大，但计算并没有那么简单。“取消消费者税收抵免对美国电动汽车(和TSLA)的需求并不是绝对有利的。特斯拉可能会推出一些新车型或更新产品，这可能会有所帮助。但是，我们已经看到定价行动(不包括税收抵免)只稳定了需求。因此，如果信贷取消，可能需要进一步的定价行动。特朗普获胜对特斯拉的另一个利好结果是，监管环境更加友好，尤其是对特斯拉推出的自动驾驶出租车。斯帕克写道，尽管有观点认为，监管“障碍”的简化对特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车服务是有利的，但事实上，没有任何繁重的联邦自动驾驶汽车法规需要“放松”，因为更大的问题是在各州的基础上解决的。但事实上，更大的挑战可能是技术本身。斯帕克写道：“监管的改变不会立即解决无人监督(全自动驾驶)的技术挑战，也不会改变解决问题的时间表。”“我们仍然相信FSD正在改进，但该产品还没有准备好大规模部署自动驾驶出租车。”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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