蔚来-SW季报点评：产品矩阵快速完善，2025年销量指引强劲

国盛证券11-26 09:16

Q3毛利率进一步提升。公司Q3交付了61855辆车，其中蔚来/乐道品牌分别为61023/832辆。收入同比下降2.1%、环比增长7%至186.7亿人民币，汽车销售/其他销售额分别环比增长6.5%/11.9%到167/20亿人民币。毛利率同比/环比提升2.8pct/1.1pct至10.7%，符合预期。其中汽车毛利率同比/环比提升2.0pct/0.9pct至13.1%，主要是由于单位BOM成本下降；...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241126093043abdf2b5c&s=b><strong>国盛证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Q3毛利率进一步提升。公司Q3交付了61855辆车，其中蔚来/乐道品牌分别为61023/832辆。收入同比下降2.1%、环比增长7%至186.7亿人民币，汽车销售/其他销售额分别环比增长6.5%/11.9%到167/20亿人民币。毛利率同比/环比提升2.8pct/1.1pct至10.7%，符合预期。其中汽车毛利率同比/环比提升2.0pct/0.9pct至13.1%，主要是由于单位BOM成本下降；...</p>\n\n<a 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strong","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SW":1,"NIO":1,"NIO.SI":0.6,"09866":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6},"content_text":"Q3毛利率进一步提升。公司Q3交付了61855辆车，其中蔚来/乐道品牌分别为61023/832辆。收入同比下降2.1%、环比增长7%至186.7亿人民币，汽车销售/其他销售额分别环比增长6.5%/11.9%到167/20亿人民币。毛利率同比/环比提升2.8pct/1.1pct至10.7%，符合预期。其中汽车毛利率同比/环比提升2.0pct/0.9pct至13.1%，主要是由于单位BOM成本下降；其他业务毛亏损率同比/环比改善15pct/3.5pct至8.8%，主要系零部件、配件销售及汽车售后服务盈利性改善。运营费用伴随的收入的成长也呈现一定幅度的增长，研发和SG&A费用率环比基本持平。Q3归母净亏损51亿人民币，non-GAAP归母净亏损44亿，non-GAAP归母净亏损率环比收窄2.4pct至23.6%。预计Q4蔚来主品牌销量较为疲软，乐道拉动成长。公司10月交付20976辆，其中蔚来和乐道品牌销量分别为16657/4319辆。蔚来品牌销量环比有所下降，公司表明主要系促销政策的收窄导致。展望Q4，公司指引Q4销量7.2-7.5万，并表明乐道品牌12月产量可以爬坡至1万，当前在手订单充裕，我们预计产能有望全部转化为销量。因此，NIO品牌在Q4销量可能相对疲软，乐道品牌将成为销量成长的主要动力来源。收入层面，公司指引Q4收入大约为196.76-203.83亿元，同比增长15%-19.2%。产品矩阵不断完善，2025年销量指引强劲。1)蔚来品牌：NT3.0平台的第一款车型ET9预计将于12月21日正式上市、2025年3月开始交付，该车型预售价为80万元，是NIO以往技术的结晶之作。此外，蔚来品牌其他车型也会陆续上市。2)乐道品牌：当前L60正在快速爬坡当中，公司预计2025年3月产能可爬升至2万辆，此外2025年即将上市一款大五座的SUV和一款六座/七座的SUV车型，使得整个乐道品牌成为公司2025年销量增长的强劲 驱动力 。3)萤火虫品牌：12月21日，萤火虫品牌将全球首次亮相，定位精品紧凑型汽车市场，其首款车型预计将于2025H1交付。基于愈发广泛的细分市场布局，公司目标2025年销量在今年的基础上实现翻倍。预计明年继续扩张补能网络，为汽车销售奠基。今年前三季度，蔚来品牌在中国30万元以上的纯电市场中销量稳居第一，占据超40%的市场份额，在中国高端纯电市场龙头地位稳固。优秀的市场地位离不开公司独特的补能方式和BaaS购车方案。截至11月20日，公司在全球拥有2737个换电站、24282根超充桩和目充桩。由于换电能力是蔚来汽车最吸引消费者的优势之一，公司仍会坚持基建先行的策略，在明年加速布局换电站，以实现“加电县县通”的目标，并支持公司各个品牌汽车在全国范围内的竞争力。投资建议：考虑到公司新产品强势，我们适当调高了销量和收入预测，预计2024-2026年销量约22/40/49万辆，总收入达661/1028/1221亿元。得益于规模经济，公司未来几年亏损率有望逐步收窄，但我们预计亏损绝对值随着我们调高了收入预测也有所增长，预计non-GAAP归母净利润率约-27%/-13%/-11%。我们给予其目标市值约128亿美元(994亿港元)，对应约0.9X2025e P/S，目标价港股(9866。HK)47.9港元、美股(NIO。N)6.2美元，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：车型研发及销售不及预期风险、新品牌推进不及预期风险、盈利性改善不及预期的风险、现金消耗较快的风险、上游零部件供应波动风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Business 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