百度集团-SW广告业务短期承压，有待宏观复苏及AI产品变现

开源证券11-25 11:16

短期广告增长承压，关注AI产品重构进展及智驾商业化，维持“买入”评级短期百度核心广告及爱奇艺业务承压，我们下调公司2024-2026年non-GAAP净利润预测至261/272/298亿元(前值：268/287/319亿元)，对应同比增速-9.3%/4.4%/9.4%，对应调整后摊薄EPS9.0/9.3/10.0元，当前股价76.65HKD对应2024-2026年7.8/7.6/7.1倍PE。考虑...

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products","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.9,"BIDU":1,"SW":1,"IQ":0.9},"content_text":"短期广告增长承压，关注AI产品重构进展及智驾商业化，维持“买入”评级短期百度核心广告及爱奇艺业务承压，我们下调公司2024-2026年non-GAAP净利润预测至261/272/298亿元(前值：268/287/319亿元)，对应同比增速-9.3%/4.4%/9.4%，对应调整后摊薄EPS9.0/9.3/10.0元，当前股价76.65HKD对应2024-2026年7.8/7.6/7.1倍PE。考虑到未来随宏观环境复苏及AI产品变现、广告业务有望重回增长，生成式AI对云收入贡献持续扩大、无人驾驶重点区域盈亏平衡及后续扩张有望驱动估值提升，维持“买入”评级。2024Q3收入基本符合预期，利润低于预期源于爱奇艺业绩不及预期2024Q3百度收入同比下滑3%，基本符合彭博一致预期；non-GAAP净利润59亿元，同比下滑19%，低于彭博一致预期(62亿)，源自爱奇艺经营利润低于预期。分业务看，(1)百度核心在线营销：2024Q3收入同比下滑4%弱于互联网广告大盘，根据QuestMobile数据，2024Q3中国互联网广告市场同比增长5.5%，源于宏观环境影响、应用内搜索广告竞争加剧及搜索中AI生成内容比例提升但尚未开启变现，2024Q3搜索页面中约20%为AI生成结果、环比提升2pct。(2)AI及智能云：2024Q3智能云收入同比增长11%，AI云收入占比约11%。(3)智能驾驶：2024Q3萝卜快跑单量同比增长20%。(4)爱奇艺：2024Q3收入同比下滑10%，经营利润率同比下滑6pct。短期广告增长承压，利润率或有波动，有待宏观环境复苏及AI变现短期广告主业SME客户投放需求疲弱、竞争加剧及公司主动提升AI生成内容占比影响导致增长承压，AI有望带动广告变现效率提升及云需求增长，智能驾驶商业模式有望获得验证。利润端，短期收入结构变化利润率或有波动，但AI云稳态利润率有望高于传统业务，智能驾驶目标优先实现重点区域盈亏平衡，持续减少非核心业务投入及费用优化。风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、AI进展不及预期、智能驾驶变现不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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