快手-W24Q3业绩点评报告：营收和利润符合预期，加强让利于商家和用户

浙商证券14:16

投资要点3Q2024，公司在宏观波动中走出较为健康的姿态。公司Q3实现311.3亿元(YoY+11.4%)，高于彭博一致预期0.3%。毛利率为54.3%(YoY+2.6pct)，高于彭博一致预期0.4pct。经调整净利润39.5亿(YoY+24.4%)，高于一致预期盈利1.0%，经调整净利率12.7%(YoY+1.3pct)，高于一致预期0.1pct。我们预计，公司顺周期业务总体跟随宏观波动表现，...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241122143034a24d2606&s=b><strong>浙商证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资要点3Q2024，公司在宏观波动中走出较为健康的姿态。公司Q3实现311.3亿元(YoY+11.4%)，高于彭博一致预期0.3%。毛利率为54.3%(YoY+2.6pct)，高于彭博一致预期0.4pct。经调整净利润39.5亿(YoY+24.4%)，高于一致预期盈利1.0%，经调整净利率12.7%(YoY+1.3pct)，高于一致预期0.1pct。我们预计，公司顺周期业务总体跟随宏观波动表现，...</p>\n\n<a 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users","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81024":0.9,"01024":1},"content_text":"投资要点3Q2024，公司在宏观波动中走出较为健康的姿态。公司Q3实现311.3亿元(YoY+11.4%)，高于彭博一致预期0.3%。毛利率为54.3%(YoY+2.6pct)，高于彭博一致预期0.4pct。经调整净利润39.5亿(YoY+24.4%)，高于一致预期盈利1.0%，经调整净利率12.7%(YoY+1.3pct)，高于一致预期0.1pct。我们预计，公司顺周期业务总体跟随宏观波动表现，电商在适度加大补贴的情况下持续提升变现效率，广告外循环收入恢复快于内循环。我们测算，公司2024/25/26年经调整利润分别为177/220/270亿元，对应当前股价PE为11.9/9.6/7.8倍，维持“买入”评级。流量：用户指标略超预期，运维成本可控本季度快手DAU达4.08亿(YoY+5.4%)，高于彭博一致预期1.0%。MAU达7.1亿(YoY+4.3%)，高于彭博一致预期1.8%。DAU/MAU为57.1%(YoY+0.6pct)，单DAU人均使用时长132.2分钟(YoY+1.8%)。公司依托具有差异化的生态位，通过包含加强短剧垂类扶持，全方位满足用户追奥运需求在内的多项产运优化，实现了用户活跃和留存的提升。我们测算，在相关投放背景下，用户新增和维护成本保持相对稳定。总览：收入符合预期，海外电商处于探索阶段公司Q3实现311.3亿元(YoY+11.4%)，高于彭博一致预期0.3%。1)国内业务：收入298.0亿元(YoY+9.17%)，实现经营利润35.1亿元(YoY+11.09%)。2)海外业务：收入13.3亿元(YoY+104.1%)，经营亏损1.5亿元(同比减亏4.9亿元，环比减亏1.3亿元)。Kwai在核心市场巴西保持增长，流量上，日活跃用户同比增长9.7%，日均使用时长同比增长4.2%。变现上，线上营销正快速析出利润帮助减亏，电商仍处于探索阶段。分业务：广告内循环让利于商家，电商表现出韧性广告：收入176亿元(YoY+20.0%)，与一致预期基本持平。分结构看，预计外循环增长显著高于整体增长，行业层面，传媒资讯、电商平台和本地生活等保持繁荣。本季度IAA短剧模式跑通，付费受众迅速提升，短剧营销消耗同比增长超3倍。公司延续其智能化优势，使用营销产品Universal Auto X(UAX)进行投放的总消耗占比达50%以上，Q1/Q2这一比例分别为约30%/40%；预计内循环广告收入增速低于电商GMV增速，源于平台着眼于长期生态需求和竞争需求让利于商家。电商：收入41.6亿元(YoY+17.5%)，低于一致预期0.3%。Q3快手电商GMV3342亿元(YoY+15.1%)，高于一致预期2.7%；变现率为1.23%(YoY+0.01pct)，低于一致预期0.04pct，主要源于为应对传统货架电商竞争压力，公司让利商家、补贴用户力度大于预期，部分被品类结构改善抵消；月付费用户平均数达1.33亿(YoY+12.2%)，月活跃用户渗透率创新高至18.6%(YoY+1.1pct)。人货场来看，公司在货和场层面积极寻求增量，本季度公司在中小商家和达人上延续扶持，月均动销商家数同比增长超过40.0%，新入驻快手商家数量同比增长超30.0%，商品类目数量同比增长超20.0%，中小达人日均撮合GMV环比增长超40.0%。电商多场域协同效应持续增强，Q3泛货架场域GMV超大盘增长，占总GMV比例约27.0%，短视频电商GMV同比增长超40.0%，短视频引流直播间成交的GMV环比增长近40%。直播：收入93.38亿元(YoY-3.9%)，高于一致预期1.4%，主要源于流量大盘和付费用户数超预期提升，这部分业务经历快速调整后出现企稳态势，公司通过积极引入优质供给对冲影响，预计Q4保持低个位数同比降幅。盈利表现：营销跟随需求扩张，盈利符合预期本季度快手毛利169.1亿(YoY+17.0%)，高于彭博一致预期1.1%。毛利率54.3%(YoY+2.6pct)，高于彭博一致预期0.7pct，高于预期主要得益于收入结构改善和资产运用效率提升。环比下滑与奥运会内容支出、电商补贴等营销投入、AI业务投入有关。销售费用103.6亿(YoY+15.9%)，高于彭博一致预期0.1%。销售费用率为33.3%(YoY+1.3pct)，低于彭博一致预期0.1pct。管理费用8.0亿(YoY-11.4%)，高于彭博一致预期5.8%。管理费用率为2.6%(YoY-0.7pct)，高于彭博一致预期0.1pct。研发费用31.0亿(YoY+4.5%)，高于彭博一致预期5.0%。研发费用率为10.0%(YoY-0.7pct)，高于彭博一致预期0.4pct。经调整净利润39.5亿(YoY+24.4%)，高于一致预期盈利1.0%，经调整净利率12.7%(YoY+1.3pct)，高于一致预期0.1pct。投资建议我们测算，公司2024/25/26年经调整利润分别为177/220/270亿元，对应当前股价PE为11.9/9.6/7.8倍，维持“买入”评级。快手Q1业绩后宣布计划在未来三年内回购不超过160亿港元的股票，其中60亿港元的自动回购计划于今年8月8日开始至明年5月30日完成，Q3耗用21亿港元，公司暂无分红派息计划。风险提示1)竞争格局恶化风险；2)宏观经济波动风险；3)海外政策风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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