京东集团-SW：Q3业绩超预期关注Q4国补红利释放

东方证券11-22 00:00

公司发布FY3Q24 业绩，Q3 表现亮眼收入利润均超预期。24Q3 公司实现营业收入2603.9 亿元（yoy+5.1%），略超彭博一致预期， Non-GAAP 归母净利润131.7 亿元（yoy+23.9%）大超彭博一致预期。分业务收入：1、商品收入：24Q3 实现商品收入2046.1 亿元（yoy+4.8%）1）带电：受益国补增速转正。24Q3 实现营业收入1225.6 亿元（yoy+...

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亿元（yoy+5.1%），略超彭博一致预期， Non-GAAP 归母净利润131.7 亿元（yoy+23.9%）大超彭博一致预期。分业务收入：1、商品收入：24Q3 实现商品收入2046.1 亿元（yoy+4.8%）1）带电：受益国补增速转正。24Q3 实现营业收入1225.6 亿元（yoy+...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241122131125a24d0108&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0039217434.USD","symbol_name":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241122131125a24d0108&s=b","article_id":"2485070734","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241122131125a24d0108&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, 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亿元（yoy+6.5%）1）平台：24Q3 实现收入207.6 亿元（yoy+6.3%），3P 商家成交用户同比高增20%以上，交易量上升带动佣金收入转正，广告收入双位数增长。2）物流及其他收入：24Q3 实现收入350.1 亿元（yoy+6.5%）分部情况：1）京东零售：24Q3 实现收入2249.9 亿元（yoy+6.1%），经营利润116.1 亿元（yoy+5.5%），受益于家电3C 及商超品类的高增Q3 表现良好。我们预计随着国补政策覆盖区域扩大叠加补贴深入用户心智，Q4 家电3C 仍可维持高景气。据京东官方数据双十一期间 3C 数码、家电等带电品类销售再创新高，成交额、订单量及下单用户数保持双位数增长，大促表现良好叠加国补红利Q4 业绩可期。2）京东物流：24Q3 实现收入444.0 亿元（yoy+6.6%），经营利润20.9 亿元（yoy+624.3%）大超预期，规模效应提升叠加供应链优化盈利能力显著提升。我们调整盈利预测，预测2024-2026 年收入为11385/12098/12878 亿元（原2024-2026 年预测为11344/12087/12847 亿元，因以旧换新政策与双十一投入加大上调收入），经调整归母净利润为421/472/507 亿元（原2024-2026 年预测为418/431/447 亿元，因高毛利业务占比增加上调利润率）。参考可比公司，维持京东零售业务2024 年11xPE，分部估值计算公司市值5250 亿元，对应每股股价178.4 港元（人民币兑港币汇率1.08），维持“买入”评级。风险提示：政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧，行业监管趋严。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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京东集团-SW：Q3业绩超预期 关注Q4国补红利释放

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京东集团-SW：Q3业绩超预期关注Q4国补红利释放