华尔街投行接连警告：美股的调整或已开始

中国金融信息网11-19

转自：新华财经新华财经上海11月19日电（葛佳明） “特朗普交易”所推动的美股涨势在上周戛然而止，坚挺的通胀数据和美联储主席鲍威尔的“鹰派”评论均让市场重新审视美股后续走势。近日，加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）策略师表示，标普500指数的回调可能已经开始，回调幅度或达到5%-10%。德意志银行分析师也在近期发布的报告中表示，美股目前所处环境与历史上三个高点均有...

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Markets）策略师表示，标普500指数的回调可能已经开始，回调幅度或达到5%-10%。德意志银行分析师也在近期发布的报告中表示，美股目前所处环境与历史上三个高点均有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-11-19/doc-incwqvpq2916426.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_ES","symbol_name":"SP500指数","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-11-19/doc-incwqvpq2916426.shtml","article_id":"2484990991","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-11-19/doc-incwqvpq2916426.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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Calvasina)认为，标普500指数可能回落的因素包括估值过高、期货市场的头寸以及近期市场情绪过于乐观或被视为超买信号。卡尔瓦西纳称，自2022年底以来美股的表现看，上述因素的出现都预示着市场回落。从美联储估值模型来看（股票和债券收益率差值），卡尔瓦西纳表示，目前，标普500指数的盈利收益率（市盈率P/E的倒数）为3.90%，低于10年期美债收益率4.46%，两者间相差0.56个百分点。上一次两者间出现如此显著的负值则要追溯到2008-2009年的金融危机，估值模型或许暗示美股的估值过高。此外，根据每周的商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，当前美国股票期货市场的看涨头寸过度集中，如果市场发生变化，可能导致市场大幅调整。德意志银行则在11月18日的报告中分析了当前市场环境与1990年代末的互联网泡沫、2007年全球金融危机前的市场高点以及2021年的高点间的相似之处。德意志银行在报告中称，过去18个月中，风险资产表现优异，但多类资产的估值已经处于高位。标普500指数的周期调整市盈率（CAPE）在过去一个世纪中仅有两次超过当前水平。因估值过高，进一步上涨的空间很小，历史上美股在高估值后都出现了显著的调整。美股后续走势的关键美国银行股票衍生品研究团队副总裁冈萨洛•阿西斯（Gonzalo Asis)领导的团队在近期发布的报告中称，11月20日即将发布的英伟达的新一季财报或将决定美股后续走势。阿西斯在报告中写道，美股近期受到选举、利率波动和美联储等多重因素影响，但从期权市场来看，英伟达的财报对整个市场来说仍然是一个非常重要的因素。标普500指数的隐含波动率与英伟达自身的隐含波动率保持一致，这表明英伟达财报给美股带来的风险高于即将发布的就业和通胀数据或美联储会议。美银表示，英伟达当前在美国股市中占据主导地位，在过去一年中贡献了标普500指数约20%的回报。如果英伟达业绩令人失望，那么与该公司相关的“单一股票脆弱性”风险就会上升。据数据显示，当前，英伟达的隐含变动为9.5%，表明期权市场押注其绩后单日涨跌幅达9.5%。编辑：谈瑞\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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