标普全球上调南非经济前景展望至积极

SACETA11-18

评级机构标准普尔全球（S&P Global）对南非的经济前景展现出了更加乐观的态度，决定将其对该国的评级展望从稳定上调为积极。尽管如此，南非的主权评级仍然维持在BB-，比投资级低三个等级。然而，这一调整无疑是一个积极的信号。在评估过程中，标普全球预计南非在2025年至2027年间的国内生产总值（GDP）增长率将提升至1.4%，相较于2024年预测的1.0%有所增长。这一增长预期主要是因为限电措施...

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Global）对南非的经济前景展现出了更加乐观的态度，决定将其对该国的评级展望从稳定上调为积极。尽管如此，南非的主权评级仍然维持在BB-，比投资级低三个等级。然而，这一调整无疑是一个积极的信号。在评估过程中，标普全球预计南非在2025年至2027年间的国内生产总值（GDP）增长率将提升至1.4%，相较于2024年预测的1.0%有所增长。这一增长预期主要是因为限电措施...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241118234854abcccf05&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2111349929.HKD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241118234854abcccf05&s=b","article_id":"2484770516","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241118234854abcccf05&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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Global）对南非的经济前景展现出了更加乐观的态度，决定将其对该国的评级展望从稳定上调为积极。尽管如此，南非的主权评级仍然维持在BB-，比投资级低三个等级。然而，这一调整无疑是一个积极的信号。在评估过程中，标普全球预计南非在2025年至2027年间的国内生产总值（GDP）增长率将提升至1.4%，相较于2024年预测的1.0%有所增长。这一增长预期主要是因为限电措施得到了缓解，不过，经济活动仍在一定程度上受到物流瓶颈的限制。标普全球着重强调，民族团结政府（GNU）的组建预示着可能带来重大转机，尤其是当该政府能够如期推进经济改革时。尽管当前政府总债务已攀升至GDP的约76%，但财政整顿工作正在稳步推进，并且南非凭借其坚实的国内市场和蓬勃的货币交易活动而受益匪浅。基于这些积极因素，标普全球确认了对南非主权评级的‘BB-/B’外币和‘BB/B’本币长期及短期评级，并明确表示，如果政府能够展现出更好的改革实施记录，并在减少政府债务和或有负债的同时提振经济增长，那么评级有望进一步提升。然而，标普也警告称，如果改革进展不顺利、经济增长低于预期，或者融资需求高于预期（如关键基础设施状况恶化），那么评级展望可能会回落到稳定甚至更糟。标普全球对南非政治稳定性的增强以及改革动力可能带来的私人投资和GDP增长表示乐观。自民族团结政府下11个政党的新的广泛联盟成立以来，债务收益率和投资组合流入有所改善，融资条件放宽，货币走强。尽管南非政府在最近的《中期预算政策声明》中公布的财政预测弱于之前预算中的预测，但标普认为，在实现初级盈余和财政整顿方面的财政政策可预测性更高。然而，支出压力以及对工资、社会支出和向国有企业转账的风险仍然存在，这可能导致政府总债务水平在2027财年上升至GDP的80%，高于政府的预测。幸运的是，南非拥有庞大而复杂的金融体系，为政府提供了深厚的资金基础。特别是其央行——南非储备银行（SARB）采取了积极的货币政策应对，减缓了消费价格上涨，预计通胀将略低于SARB设定的3%-6%目标范围的中点。标普全球还强调，民族团结政府在推动经济增长、商业友好型改革以及改善服务交付方面发挥了积极作用。商业信心的恢复以及私人部门在铁路、港口、电力和水务部门等领域的参与和公私合作伙伴关系的加强，可能会使私人部门投资超出预期。标普也指出了潜在的问题，包括在经济复苏增长和维持财政纪律的同时，还要在棘手的联盟政治中周旋，以及南非在国际关系上可能存在的短板，如其在以色列-巴勒斯坦战争、俄罗斯问题上的外交政策立场，以及围绕《非洲增长与机遇法案》贸易协议可能产生的紧张局势。尽管标普认为《非洲增长与机遇法案》的潜在废除不会对经济产生实质性影响，但地缘政治紧张局势可能会导致投资者情绪走弱。标普全球对南非前景的审查和评估与其他评级机构如惠誉相呼应，后者也基于全国联合政府和更积极的经济前景，为南非的评级上调铺平了道路。SACETA 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