巴菲特在大量囤现金

财富中文网11-15 21:08

说起股神巴菲特，大家最熟悉的就是他的那句投资箴言：“别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪”——出自巴菲特1968年致股东的一封信。这句话时至今日仍有很强的指导性，因为现在美股又爬升到了新高度，大家似乎都动起来了——除了巴菲特自己。那么，“股神”是恐惧了，还是贪婪了呢？虽然股市一路走高，但巴菲特从来没有像现在这样把大把现金捂在手里。据报表显示，他的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前大约持有3250亿美元的现金和现金...

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cash","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":1,"BRK.B":1},"content_text":"说起股神巴菲特，大家最熟悉的就是他的那句投资箴言：“别人贪婪我恐惧，别人恐惧我贪婪”——出自巴菲特1968年致股东的一封信。这句话时至今日仍有很强的指导性，因为现在美股又爬升到了新高度，大家似乎都动起来了——除了巴菲特自己。那么，“股神”是恐惧了，还是贪婪了呢？虽然股市一路走高，但巴菲特从来没有像现在这样把大把现金捂在手里。据报表显示，他的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前大约持有3250亿美元的现金和现金等价物，其中超过2880亿美元是美国国债，也就是所谓的“无风险”利率投资产品。与此同时，巴菲特还在市场上疯狂抛售股票。据CNN报道，在过去8个季度中，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司每个季度卖出的股票都超过了买入，最引人注目的就是抛售了最主要的三个仓位中的两个——苹果和美银。截至去年年底，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司共持有价值1780亿美元的苹果公司股份，比第二大仓位高出五倍。虽然苹果是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司持仓最多的股票，但巴菲特今年已经减持了一大半。到今年9月30日，它持有的苹果股份大约价值699亿美元。将这些股份变现后，伯克希尔-哈撒韦的季度净利润达到262.5亿美元，相当于每一股A股变现18272美元。如下图所示，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的股价已经轻松跑赢了大盘，过去三年的回报率是标普500指数的两倍还多。巴菲特会大举入市吗？除了及时收手变现以外，巴菲特如此大手笔抛售股份，是否也因为他认为市场已经过热了？著名的“巴菲特指标”（即将所有上市股份的价值与美国经济总规模进行比较）表明，巴菲特有可能的确是这样想的。据《华尔街日报》计，美国当前的威尔希尔5000指数已达200%左右，这表明美股积聚的压力已经超过了科技泡沫探顶的那段时期。一旦市场下行，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司肯定会拿出资金抄底。《华尔街日报》指出，巴菲特的公司可能会瞄准25家左右美国最有价值的上市公司，包括迪士尼、高盛、辉瑞、通用电气和AT&T等。当然，巴菲特也有可能因为股市整体估值过高，而在此轮反弹中选择不出手，又或者他只是在单纯地等待机会。据《华尔街日报》报道，巴菲特曾在2023年的年会上表示：“我们要买入的是那些真正优秀的公司。如果我们能以500亿、750亿或者1000亿美元买入一家真正优秀的公司，我们就会那样做的。”但是能达到这种规模的公司并不多，所以这也可以解释为什么巴菲特一直没有出手。《华尔街日报》指出，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前的现金储备情况，可能是为什么巴菲特没有大举入市的主要原因之一。目前，该公司要进行任何形式的收购，可能都要支付20%或以上的溢价。与此同时，伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的规模已经太大了，因此它也越来越难复制其能利用利润持续跑赢市场的那种可靠模式。在去年年会上，巴菲特还表示，他将持有更多现金，好为更高的资本所得税做准备。不过，虽然巴菲特认为这件事已经是迫在眉睫了，但美国的资本所得税可能不会很快到来，毕竟特朗普马上就要二次入主白宫了。（财富中文网）在财富Plus，网友们对这篇文章发表了许多有深度和思想的观点。一起来看看吧。也欢迎你加入我们，谈谈你的想法。今日其他热议话题：查看原图 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