隆基绿能：Q3资产减值显著下降业绩环比减亏关注HPBC2.0量产进展

中信建投证券11-15

核心观点公司发布2024 年第三季度报告，24Q1-Q3 实现营业收入585.93亿元，同比-37.73%，归母净利润-65.05 亿元，同比-155.62%。公司Q3 业绩承压，但实现环比减亏，减亏主要系Q3 计提存货跌价减值显著下降。公司BC 技术领先布局，HPBC2.0 新产品量产效率最高达24.8%，产品竞争力强。2024 年底公司HPBC2. 0 产品将规模化进入市场，预计将进一步提升...

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Pay attention to the progress of HPBC2.0 mass production","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601012":1},"content_text":"核心观点公司发布2024 年第三季度报告，24Q1-Q3 实现营业收入585.93亿元，同比-37.73%，归母净利润-65.05 亿元，同比-155.62%。公司Q3 业绩承压，但实现环比减亏，减亏主要系Q3 计提存货跌价减值显著下降。公司BC 技术领先布局，HPBC2.0 新产品量产效率最高达24.8%，产品竞争力强。2024 年底公司HPBC2. 0 产品将规模化进入市场，预计将进一步提升公司竞争力。公司预计HPBC2.0 明年出货30GW，随着公司HPBC2.0 逐步放量，公司盈利能力有望改善。事件公司发布2024 年第三季度报告。24Q1-Q3 实现营业收入585.93 亿元，同比-37.73%，归母净利润-65.05 亿元，同比-155.62%；扣非后-64.88 亿元，同比-156. 35%。Q3 单季度来看，营业收入200.64 亿元，同比-31.87%，环比-3. 79%；归母净利润-12.61 亿元，同比-150.14%，环比减亏；扣非后-12. 12亿元，同比-149.37%，环比减亏。简评公司Q3 业绩承压，但实现环比减亏。Q3 公司实现归母净利润-12.61 亿元，同比-150.14%，环比减亏。公司三季度业绩承压主要系：1）产业链价格下行公司经营性业绩承压，同时计提存货跌价损失；2）美国高盈利市场出货有所下滑。Q3 业绩环比减亏主要系Q3 计提存货跌价减值显著下降，Q3 公司资产减值损失约7. 74亿元，而Q1/Q2 分别为28.14/29.70 亿元。灵活调整出货，Q3 光伏产品出货环比有所增长。2024 前三季度公司实现硅片出货82.80GW （其中对外销售35.03GW），同比下降4.22%；单晶电池对外销售4.16GW；组件出货量51.23GW（其中BC 组件销量13.77GW），同比增长17.70%。Q3 公司电池组件、硅片分别出货分别为38.37GW、21.39GW，环比均有所增长。公司BC 技术领先布局，实现高效HPBC 2.0 技术重大突破。公司HPBC2.0 新产品量产效率最高达24.8%，2382 版型产品功率最高达到670W，产品竞争力强。2024 年底公司HPBC2.0 产品将规模化进入市场，公司预计HPBC2.0 明年出货30GW，有望提升公司盈利能力。根据规划，公司2025 年底前BC 产能将达到70GW（其中2.0 产能50GW），2026 年底国内电池基地计划全部迁移至BC 产品，届时BC 产能达到100GW。美国市场出货有望逐步恢复。Q1-Q3 公司美国市场出货1.6GW，同比有所下降。公司美国5GW 组件工厂目前仍处于爬坡阶段，预计后续公司美国市场出货有望恢复，有望为公司带来业绩增量。期间费用率同比下降，管理费用率持续下降。公司Q3 期间费用率为9.3%，同比-0.6pct，环比+0.9pct。Q3 公司管理费用率3.4%，同比下降1.6pct，环比下降0.3pct。此外，公司Q3 净利率-6.37%，环比增长7.53pct，环比改善。盈利预测：我们预计公司2024-2026 年归母净利润-75.3/38.6/53.5 亿元，2025-2026 年对应2024 年11 月14 日PE 估值为37.7/27.2 倍。光伏行业周期底部已经出现，2024 年底公司HPBC 2.0 产能将开始投产，明年将逐步放量，预计能进一步增强公司竞争力并带来一定超额利润，维持“增持”评级。风险分析1、行业需求不及预期的风险。公司业务覆盖光伏产业链众多环节，倘若行业增速不及预期，将会对公司光伏组件、硅片、电站、委托加工等业务都造成较大的负面影响。2、HPBC 提效降本不及预期。HPBC 是公司的一大差异化产品，在盈利能力上具有一定优势。倘若公司HPBC 提效降本不及预期，那么公司的盈利能力以及产品竞争力上将受到负面影响。3、项目进展不及预期的风险。公司扩产项目较多，一体化产能投产后将为公司一体化组件盈利带来一定提升。倘若公司项目进展不及预期，那么公司的出货量及盈利能力将受到较大的影响。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2483397468"}

隆基绿能：Q3资产减值显著下降业绩环比减亏 关注HPBC2.0量产进展

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隆基绿能：Q3资产减值显著下降业绩环比减亏关注HPBC2.0量产进展