“卖卖卖”停不下来，“恐惧”的巴菲特释放了什么信号？

21财经网11-15 15:15

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌上海报道当地时间11月14日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司递交了2024年第三季度持仓报告（13F）。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔持仓规模为2660亿美元，相较于前一季度的2800亿美元略有下滑。伯克希尔持仓规模下降并非因为投资标的下跌，而是和巴菲特“卖卖卖”息息相关。伯克希尔已经连续八个季度净卖出股票，第三季度也没有回购任何股票，为...

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上海报道当地时间11月14日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）披露，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司递交了2024年第三季度持仓报告（13F）。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔持仓规模为2660亿美元，相较于前一季度的2800亿美元略有下滑。伯克希尔持仓规模下降并非因为投资标的下跌，而是和巴菲特“卖卖卖”息息相关。伯克希尔已经连续八个季度净卖出股票，第三季度也没有回购任何股票，为2018年以来的首次。巴菲特已经非常明确地表示过，如果公司股价被高估的话，绝不会回购股票。颇为应景的是，14日避险情绪席卷市场，美股三大股指全线下跌，美元指数升破107关口，创下一年来新高，金价持续低迷，触及两个月低点。这背后是美联储降息预期的急剧降温，12月降息的概率从前一天的80%迅速降至50%左右。美联储主席鲍威尔14日的一席话震动市场：在经济强劲的情况下，美联储并不急于降息。在此前持续大涨后，美股已经出现一些疲态，或许在巴菲特眼中，一场新的风暴正在悄然酝酿。三季度继续“卖卖卖”11月早些时候伯克希尔财报已经披露，三季度苹果被大量减持。最新持仓报告进一步显示，伯克希尔三季度减持的不只有苹果，还有美国银行、卫星广播公司Sirius、犹他美容、特许通讯等股票。目前伯克希尔前十大重仓股占总持仓规模90%，分别是苹果、美国运通、美国银行、可口可乐、雪佛龙、西方石油、穆迪、卡夫亨氏、丘博保险和德维特。三季度前十大重仓股只有苹果和美国银行遭到减持。市场普遍认为，伯克希尔减持苹果和美银可能是基于估值过高、降低投资组合集中度等考量。CFRA研究分析师Cathy Seifert认为，巴菲特出售苹果可能只是简单的投资组合调整。此前苹果在伯克希尔的投资组合中占比过大，因此，现在巴菲特削减一些苹果的股份也十分合理。尽管大幅减持，但伯克希尔的头号重仓股仍是苹果公司。截至第三季度末，伯克希尔仍持有3亿股苹果股票，持股数量较上一季度减少了1亿股，占总持仓比例从上一季度的30.09%下滑至26.24%。伯克希尔对美国银行的减持幅度接近23%，截至三季度末对美国银行的持股比例为10.4%。步入10月后，伯克希尔仍在继续减持美国银行的持股，持股比例已经降至10%的关键披露门槛以下。暴风雨来临前的平静？在伯克希尔大举卖出股票背后，也有一些小型投资动作。伯克希尔在第三季度买入了达美乐披萨、游泳池用品分销商Pool公司和海科航空，其中Pool和达美乐披萨为新进标的，背后的考量是二者表现均落后于大盘，达美乐披萨的股价年内累计上涨了约6%，而Pool的股价则下跌了8%。但整体而言，“卖卖卖”仍是巴菲特投资动作的主线，凸显谨慎情绪。在减持了苹果和美国银行后，伯克希尔三季度现金储备已经增长480亿美元至3252亿美元，创下历史纪录。凭借庞大的现金规模，巴菲特一旦发现有吸引力的公司便有充足的弹药进行收购。天量现金储备表明，他在寻找估值诱人的优质投资目标上面临挑战。纽约大学斯特恩商学院金融学教授Aswath Damodaran认为，伯克希尔的决定也可能反映了整体市场环境，这是巴菲特对市场状况感到担忧的信号，美股估值可能已经过高了。今年三季度美股继续走高，道指涨8.21%，纳指涨2.57%，标普500指数涨5.53%。但巴菲特的卖出操作似乎预示着美股前路存在风险，“恐惧”的巴菲特是否意味着市场动荡降至？投资者正拭目以待。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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