标普全球：降息影响可控，中东银行业2025年将延续强劲表现

市场资讯11-15

财联社11月15日讯（编辑秦嘉禾）根据标普全球评级发布的《GCC银行业展望2025》报告，尽管存在美联储降息的潜在影响，海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）地区的银行业将在2025年继续保持强劲表现。　　报告指出，海合会地区银行有着稳健的资产质量、健康的资本水平和充裕的流动性，这些优势将在2025年继续支持银行业的增长。　　降息影响　　尽管根据标普预测，美联储将在2025年底前合计降息225...

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秦嘉禾）根据标普全球评级发布的《GCC银行业展望2025》报告，尽管存在美联储降息的潜在影响，海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）地区的银行业将在2025年继续保持强劲表现。\n　　报告指出，海合会地区银行有着稳健的资产质量、健康的资本水平和充裕的流动性，这些优势将在2025年继续支持银行业的增长。\n　　降息影响\n　　尽管根据标普预测，美联储将在2025年底前合计降息225...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-11-15/doc-incwcqvk6326798.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0342679015.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY UNCONSTRAINED \"AT\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-11-15/doc-incwcqvk6326798.shtml","article_id":"2483134566","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-11-15/doc-incwcqvk6326798.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, 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秦嘉禾）根据标普全球评级发布的《GCC银行业展望2025》报告，尽管存在美联储降息的潜在影响，海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）地区的银行业将在2025年继续保持强劲表现。\n　　报告指出，海合会地区银行有着稳健的资产质量、健康的资本水平和充裕的流动性，这些优势将在2025年继续支持银行业的增长。\n　　降息影响\n　　尽管根据标普预测，美联储将在2025年底前合计降息225个基点（包括目前已经实施的75个基点降息），海合会各国央行也可能效仿降息，对银行盈利能力带来一定负面影响。\n　　然而，报告也认为，这一影响将在可控范围内，“特别是对于那些依赖外部融资的银行，降息将有助于降低其融资成本和证券投资组合的未实现损益。”\n　　“根据我们的预计，（美联储进一步降息）对银行利润率的平均影响约为25-50个基点，变化如下：巴林20-30个基点，科威特30-50个基点，阿曼10-20个基点，卡塔尔+/-10个基点，沙特阿拉伯20-30个基点，阿联酋40-60个基点，”报告补充道。\n　　油价与贷款业务\n　　报告指出，预计到2024年第四季度，布伦特原油平均价格在每桶75美元左右，并在2025年至2027年间维持该水平，这将使多数海合会经济体受益。\n　　此外，中东各国的经济多元化发展，包括沙特的经济转型举措、卡塔尔扩大天然气生产、巴林和阿曼的经济改革以及一些国家非石油经济的良好表现，都将进一步支撑银行业发展。\n　　在此背景下，报告认为，各国银行将在2025年继续扩展贷款业务，不会出现重大宏观经济失衡。贷款利率将从沙特和阿联酋的8%-9%到其他国家的3-6%不等。\n　　资产质量稳定\n　　尽管卡塔尔等市场的房地产行业仍面临世界杯后过剩供应的压力，报告预计，海合会地区银行在未来12至24个月内，资产质量指标将保持稳定。\n　　此外，报告还提到，海合会地区银行的资金主要来自国内存款，这些存款在温和压力（mild stress）时期（如疫情期间）显示出韧性。公营部门存款通常占总存款的20%-30%。\n　　总体来说，根据标普报告，尽管存在一些风险，但在低劳动力成本和日益数字化的推动下，海合会地区银行业展现出极高的效率，为2025年的强劲增长和韧性奠定了基础。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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