煤炭开采行业研究简报：特朗普胜选对化石能源的影响梳理

国盛证券有限责...11-10

本周全球能源价格回顾。截至2024 年11 月08 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原油期货结算价为73.87 美元/桶，较上周上涨0.77 美元/桶（+1.05%）；WTI 原油期货结算价为70.38 美元/桶，较上周上涨0.89 美元/桶（+1.28%）。天然气价格方面，东北亚LNG 现货到岸价为13.55 美元/百万英热，较上周上涨0.08 美元/百万英热（+0.6%）；荷兰TTF 天然气期货结算价...

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研究观点，预计特朗普可能会撤销或放松美国甲烷生产规则，从而降低钻井工人的生产成本，取消天然气管道的许可障碍或会提高关键地区天然气外送能力。特朗普已表示支持增加石油产量，预计也会增加天然气供应，在特朗普第二届政府的领导下，海上石油和天然气开采或将加速。LNG：根据S&P Global 研究观点，特朗普承诺将批准LNG 项目，并结束美国能源部暂停发放LNG 出口许可证的局面。石油：根据S&P Global 研究观点，预计特朗普第二届政府可能会通过放松环保法规、扩大近海和联邦土地租赁机会来增加美国石油产量。S&P Global 预计生产商可能不会大幅增加产量，石油公司优先考虑盈利能力和股东回报，尽管有更多钻探机会，但仍保持适度的产量增长。煤炭：根据S&P Global 研究观点，在特朗普的领导下，气候变化很可能在能源政策中退居次要地位，这可能会帮助能源行业（即使无法扭转美国能源行业的趋势）。特朗普此前的政策中包括“推行有利于煤炭开采的政策”。但在特朗普上一任任期内，由于天然气和可再生能源的经济竞争力更强，美国煤炭产量和就业率有所下降。投资建议。在成长型经济体转向成熟型经济体的过程中，各行各业，过去依靠资本开支拉动净利润增长的决策模式转向更看重投入产出的投资回报率；资本市场的定价机制也将从过去的单纯从净利润单一指标，转向更加看重股东回报的自由现金流，周期股的估值预计会从成熟期的估值下降重新转入再一次的估值提升。此前，我们提及板块目前有多重积极因素正在积累，坚定看好不动摇。（1）龙头公司Q3 业绩略超预期；（2）“股票增持回购再贷款”助力煤企估值重塑；（3）底层逻辑大转变，“弱现实、强预期”逐步向“强现实、强预期”转变；（4）“互换便利”有望助力高股息资产资金增量。短期结合“绩优则股优”及弹性优先角度，重点推荐困境反转的中国秦发，绩优的中国神华、山煤国际、新集能源、中煤能源、平煤股份，弹性的平煤股份、晋控煤业、兖矿能源、昊华能源、潞安环能、山西焦煤、淮北矿业等。此外，平煤股份发布《以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案》的公告，正式打响煤企增持回购第一枪，且回购额度远超市场预期，高达5~10 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