关税和供应增加威胁！花旗重申：油价明年跌到60美元

华尔街见闻11-07

眼下特朗普即将重返白宫。在其当选消息发布后，布伦特原油价格短暂下跌接近2美元，但随即恢复平稳。截止周四发稿，布伦特原油价格为74.71美元/桶。花旗在6日发布的一份研报警告称，特朗普的再次当选对全球石油市场构成利空影响。花旗认为，除了贸易摩擦外，特朗普对OPEC+的影响力、以及美国国内的政策调整，都可能推动更多石油流向市场。长期来看，供应增加趋势将对油价形成下行压力。研报指出，即使短期内...

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Citi reiterates: Oil prices will fall to $60 next year","themeId":"7992e2c88f9e6d76a0969af46ad178ed","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"眼下特朗普即将重返白宫。在其当选消息发布后，布伦特原油价格短暂下跌接近2美元，但随即恢复平稳。截止周四发稿，布伦特原油价格为74.71美元/桶。\n\n花旗在6日发布的一份研报警告称，特朗普的再次当选对全球石油市场构成利空影响。\n花旗认为，除了贸易摩擦外，特朗普对OPEC+的影响力、以及美国国内的政策调整，都可能推动更多石油流向市场。长期来看，供应增加趋势将对油价形成下行压力。\n研报指出，即使短期内供应变化有限，但市场情绪已呈现出看跌态势。花旗预计2025年布伦特原油的平均价格可能跌至每桶60美元，比当前的现货价格下跌约20%。\n\n特朗普的政策可能对石油产生利空影响\n花旗指出，特朗普政府的贸易政策可能导致新的关税摩擦，尤其是对欧洲及亚太经济的影响。花旗的模型预测，如果美国对全球加征10%的关税，全球GDP将下降0.4%。这将进一步削弱全球石油需求增长，特别是对物流业使用较多的柴油需求，构成油价的下行风险。\n花旗还指出，特朗普与OPEC+的关系可能导致该组织加快产量恢复的步伐。特朗普有可能推动OPEC+更快地放宽减产措施，将更多石油释放到市场。\n研报还提到，如果特朗普延续其此前的“极限施压”政策，对伊朗和委内瑞拉实施新一轮制裁，尽管短期内可能推高油价，但长期来看，全球供应的增加将继续给油价带来压力。特朗普在与沙特阿拉伯等产油国的合作上表现出亲密关系，因此其政策可能有助于更多石油投放市场。\n此外，特朗普的能源政策预期将全面转向支持传统化石燃料，放松对美国国内油气行业的限制。花旗指出，特朗普可能通过降低联邦土地租赁费用、简化许可证审批流程等手段，鼓励国内油气生产活动。这些政策虽不会立即大幅增加美国原油产量，但可能对市场情绪产生影响，并间接影响到石油价格。特朗普政府对环保局（EPA）等机构的监管压力也可能会减少，从而推动页岩油企业更多地关注产量扩张，而非股票回购等财务操作。\n内需变化对石油市场构成影响\n研报还认为，美国国内需求变化也可能对石油市场构成影响。尽管共和党全面推翻《通胀削减法案》（IRA）的可能性不大，但特朗普可能通过加强电动车关键零部件的合规要求，削弱电动车的吸引力，从而间接影响燃油需求。花旗提到，虽然电动车目前在共和党控制的州颇受欢迎，但特朗普政府可能倾向于支持传统燃油汽车。\n\n花旗认为，随着全球经济的不确定性增加，石油需求增长难以提振。即便在中东地缘风险和美国飓风影响下，市场情绪的波动性也未能持续支持油价。\n因此，花旗预测，油价在2025年面临下行压力，平均可能跌至每桶60美元。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2481978608"}