高盛顶级交易员：大选日“系好安全带”，任何明确结果都会重创美股波动率

华尔街见闻11-06

11月5日周二美国大选决战日到来，高盛顶级交易员、对冲基金研究主管Tony Pasquariello警告，大选决战日，偏好风险投资的人士要“系好安全带”，称基金经理们最近已经主动降低风险。 Pasquariello表示，从高盛的特许经营资金流情况可以清楚地看出，交易界近几周已经为大选做好准备，大幅降低了风险。高盛主经纪商业务（PB）数据显示，在美国股市，基本面L/S策略的股票基金经理的合计投资组合...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3733050><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月5日周二美国大选决战日到来，高盛顶级交易员、对冲基金研究主管Tony Pasquariello警告，大选决战日，偏好风险投资的人士要“系好安全带”，称基金经理们最近已经主动降低风险。\nPasquariello表示，从高盛的特许经营资金流情况可以清楚地看出，交易界近几周已经为大选做好准备，大幅降低了风险。高盛主经纪商业务（PB）数据显示，在美国股市，基本面L/S策略的股票基金经理的合计投资组合...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3733050\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SVXY","symbol_name":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3733050","article_id":"2481312696","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/51a815fb-7b02-4edf-8a36-05bac810fd34.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3733050","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2481312696","pubTimestamp":1730832152,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛对冲基金研究主管Pasquariello称，近几周交易界已大幅降低风险，宏观领域的头寸大幅减少，最明显的是美国利率的头寸；若投资者迅速跟上最初大选投票结果带来的市场趋势，他将密切关注债市。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF 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Pasquariello警告，大选决战日，偏好风险投资的人士要“系好安全带”，称基金经理们最近已经主动降低风险。\nPasquariello表示，从高盛的特许经营资金流情况可以清楚地看出，交易界近几周已经为大选做好准备，大幅降低了风险。高盛主经纪商业务（PB）数据显示，在美国股市，基本面L/S策略的股票基金经理的合计投资组合敞口已降至2023年3月以来的最低水平。\n而且，减仓并不仅限于对冲基金。上周，只做多策略的客户净卖出股票100亿美元，单周抛售规模创今年内新高，这可能是为了其他动作筹资，也可能不是。\n美股市场中还有其他一些明显的防御性标志，在期权倾斜和标普期货头寸中都很明显（近期趋势 = 多头下降，空头上升）。除此之外，Pasquariello 指出，宏观领域的头寸似乎大幅减少，最明显的是美国利率的头寸。\nPasquariello认为，本周二将既轻松又能斩获今年初至今不错的收益，投资者将迅速跟上最初大选投票结果带来的市场趋势。如果这种预测无误，他将密切关注债市，债市的偏好一直是卖出收益曲线的中段和/或后端。\n\n对于股票而言，对Pasquariello来说最明确的一点是：任何看似明确的大选结果都会让隐含波动率迅速遭受重创。\n\n华尔街见闻本周稍早提到，华尔街的策略师们普遍认为，美债收益率将决定美国大选后美股的走势。\n其中，摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson领导团队认为，在出现特朗普当选、且共和党包揽参众两院多数席位、即红色横扫的情况下，如果在选举结果公布后的几天内美国国债收益率保持在一定水平内（如10年期国债收益率的波动不超过20个基点），并且收益率上升是由名义增长预期改善所驱动，那么周期性股票（金融、工业和对大宗商品敏感的行业）可能会表现优异，并推动指数上涨。\n而如果选举结果公布后美债收益率“大幅”走高，且受到市场担忧财政前景可持续所致的期限溢价上升推动，股市避险情绪可能会升温。\n如果哈里斯胜选，同时国会出现分裂，参众两院被民主党和共和党分别把持，这种情况下，受关税影响的消费品股票和可再生能源股将表现优异。利率下降也可能使对住房敏感的消费股和高贝塔值的股票受益，而金融股、工业股和对大宗商品敏感的行业可能会表现不佳。\n不过Wilson预计这一初步走势将较为温和，除金融股外，押注共和党获胜交易的多头10月并没有发生太大波动。相比特朗普执政的情况，哈里斯执政情况下，金融股可能因潜在的更严格监管而在短期内表现不佳。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like 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