美国科技股下跌带来抄底机会

巴伦周刊11-01

最近科技板块表现疲软，但它并没有遇到什么麻烦。截至周四（10月31日），美股科技股ETF Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)本周下跌了3.4%，至223美元，目前远低于7月创下的237美元的峰值。投资者抛弃了他们之前最喜欢的科技股有很多理由：微软(MSFT)的业绩很强劲，但对于接近30倍的市盈率来说还不够强劲；华尔街的“宠儿”超微电脑(SMCI)在披露其审计师因...

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VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus"},"translate_title":"Falling U.S. tech stocks bring bottom-hunting opportunities","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XLK":1,"AMZN":0.9,"META":0.9,"TTTN":0.82,"AAPL":0.8,"03086":0.79,"MSFT":0.7},"content_text":"最近科技板块表现疲软，但它并没有遇到什么麻烦。截至周四（10月31日），美股科技股ETF Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)本周下跌了3.4%，至223美元，目前远低于7月创下的237美元的峰值。投资者抛弃了他们之前最喜欢的科技股有很多理由：微软(MSFT)的业绩很强劲，但对于接近30倍的市盈率来说还不够强劲；华尔街的“宠儿”超微电脑(SMCI)在披露其审计师因会计问题辞职后，该公司股价在短短两天里暴跌了近40%，引发了投资者对人工智能行业过度行为的担忧；一组在过去12个月时间里上涨了40%的股票没能吸引到足够的买家。不过，亚马逊(AMZN)在周四盘后交易中上涨了5.2%，该公司第三季度业绩超出预期，与此同时，苹果(AAPL)的业绩同样超出预期，虽然股价出现了下跌，但跌幅较小，为0.4%。美债收益率上升也给科技股带来了压力。美联储9月18日降息前一天以来，10年期美国国债收益率上升了0.63个百分点，收益率上升是因为美国经济仍在增长，以及两位总统候选人提出的政策可能会导致通胀。长期债券收益率上升会降低企业未来利润的价值，进而给估值带来下行压力。显然，科技股的估值承受了巨大的压力。目前，Technology Select Sector SPDR的12个月预期市盈率为28倍，低于7月触及的31倍的峰值。如果债券收益率下降，科技股的估值有望再次上升，不过，即便市盈率没有上升，盈利也会成为一股强大的推动力。FactSet的数据显示，在营收以9%的速度增长以及数十亿美元股票回购的推动下，未来两年，科技板块的利润将以每年18%的速度增长。也就是说，虽然最近科技板块表现疲软，但它并没有遇到什么麻烦。瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)分析师乔丹·克莱因（Jordan Klein）说：“今年科技股涨了不少，适度抛售算不上是特别值得担心的现象。”抛售也带来了买入机会。归属于通信服务板块的Meta Platforms (META)也未能幸免于科技板块的疲软。Meta第三季度营收增长19%，达到406亿美元，超出市场预期，人工智能的采用功不可没，当季该公司的支出增长速度慢于收入增长速度，利润率因此上升，每股收益增长了37%，至6.03美元，超出市场预期。投资者则认为Meta的业绩还不够好，股价因此下跌了4%。投资者之所以感到担忧，是因为Meta在业绩指引中预计2025年支出会增加，随着收入增长放缓，可能会侵蚀利润率。而现实情况是，Meta管理层明年增加支出是为了保持自己平台在用户中的领先地位，但当支出放缓时，利润将加速增长。Evercore ISI分析师马克·马哈尼(Mark Mahaney)说：“Meta正处于产品周期的中期，与此同时，收入增长率高达20%以上。”他对Meta股票的评级为“跑赢大盘”。此外，虽然有着如此高速度的增长，Meta的预期市盈率仅为23.2倍，低于三年高点25倍，仅略高于标普500指数的21.8倍。这是一只值得投资者在股价出现下跌时买入的科技股。文 | 雅各布·索南夏恩编辑 | 郭力群查看原图 843K","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2480886789"}