美国大选后股市怎么走？大摩小摩达成共识：得看美债收益率“脸色”

智通财经11-04

11月4日，摩根大通和摩根士丹利的策略师们一致认为：美国债券收益率将在周二大选之后决定美国股市的走势。以Michael Wilson为首的摩根士丹利团队表示，如果唐纳德•特朗普获胜以及共和党横扫国会，随后10年期美国国债收益率因经济增长改善的预期而出现有限波动，这将对股市构成利好。他们表示，在这种情况下，金融股和工业股等周期性股票将表现出色。但他们表示，如果市场对美国财政前景的担忧导致收益率“大幅...

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nemo2020
11-04
nemo2020
川川快上台吧

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Morgan Stanley and Morgan Stanley reached a consensus: it depends on the \"face\" of U.S. bond yields","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8976058631570b3dc6782d01f7bac760","symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".DJI":0.6},"content_text":"11月4日，摩根大通和摩根士丹利的策略师们一致认为：美国债券收益率将在周二大选之后决定美国股市的走势。以Michael Wilson为首的摩根士丹利团队表示，如果唐纳德•特朗普获胜以及共和党横扫国会，随后10年期美国国债收益率因经济增长改善的预期而出现有限波动，这将对股市构成利好。他们表示，在这种情况下，金融股和工业股等周期性股票将表现出色。但他们表示，如果市场对美国财政前景的担忧导致收益率“大幅”上升，股市将出现避险走势，对关税敏感的消费类股将下跌。美国国债收益率周一下跌，因为周二美国大选前的民意调查数据促使一些投资者削减所谓的特朗普交易。民意调查显示，民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯和特朗普势均力敌，哈里斯在全美和一些摇摆州略微领先。标普500指数在大选前从纪录高位回落摩根士丹利表示，如果哈里斯入主白宫，而国会出现分裂，受关税影响的消费股和可再生能源股可能在短期内表现出色。在这种情况下，利率下降也可能有利于对住房敏感的消费类股，而金融、工业和对大宗商品敏感的行业可能表现不佳。摩根大通的Mislav Matejka团队也提醒股票投资者密切关注债券市场。摩根大通策略师们表示，投资者的股票仓位高于2016年，因为人们普遍预计特朗普将获胜，市场将做出积极反应。策略师们表示：“尽管股市可能会在特朗普获胜后出现反弹，与2016年的模式一致，但上涨趋势的可持续性可能取决于债券收益率的反应程度。”他们表示，如果哈里斯获胜，企业税路径的不确定性将在短期内增加，不过中期来看，关税风险的降低可能会给股市带来支撑。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":367496859377792,"gmtCreate":1730733501719,"gmtModify":1730733503366,"author":{"id":"3570505260161011","authorId":"3570505260161011","name":"nemo2020","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d29f52f8bd1be28d88063b626f7aa1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570505260161011","authorIdStr":"3570505260161011"},"htmlText":"川川快上台吧","listText":"川川快上台吧","text":"川川快上台吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367496859377792","repostId":2480830931,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2480830931","pubTimestamp":1730721354,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2480830931?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-04 19:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国大选后股市怎么走？大摩小摩达成共识：得看美债收益率“脸色”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480830931","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通和摩根士丹利的策略师们一致认为：美国债券收益率将在周二大选之后决定美国股市的走势。以Michael Wilson为首的摩根士丹利团队表示，如果唐纳德特朗普获胜以及共和党横扫国会，随后10年期美国国债收益率因经济增长改善的预期而出现有限波动，这将对股市构成利好。美国国债收益率周一下跌，因为周二美国大选前的民意调查数据促使一些投资者削减所谓的特朗普交易。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>11月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的策略师们一致认为：美国债券收益率将在周二大选之后决定美国股市的走势。</p><p>以Michael Wilson为首的摩根士丹利团队表示，如果唐纳德•特朗普获胜以及共和党横扫国会，随后10年期美国国债收益率因经济增长改善的预期而出现有限波动，这将对股市构成利好。他们表示，在这种情况下，金融股和工业股等周期性股票将表现出色。</p><p>但他们表示，如果市场对美国财政前景的担忧导致收益率“大幅”上升，股市将出现避险走势，对关税敏感的消费类股将下跌。</p><p>美国国债收益率周一下跌，因为周二美国大选前的民意调查数据促使一些投资者削减所谓的特朗普交易。民意调查显示，民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯和特朗普势均力敌，哈里斯在全美和一些摇摆州略微领先。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数在大选前从纪录高位回落</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a25c510c6e93285941fe2d27319fd43\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>摩根士丹利表示，如果哈里斯入主白宫，而国会出现分裂，受关税影响的消费股和可再生能源股可能在短期内表现出色。在这种情况下，利率下降也可能有利于对住房敏感的消费类股，而金融、工业和对大宗商品敏感的行业可能表现不佳。</p><p>摩根大通的Mislav Matejka团队也提醒股票投资者密切关注债券市场。</p><p>摩根大通策略师们表示，投资者的股票仓位高于2016年，因为人们普遍预计特朗普将获胜，市场将做出积极反应。</p><p>策略师们表示：“尽管股市可能会在特朗普获胜后出现反弹，与2016年的模式一致，但上涨趋势的可持续性可能取决于债券收益率的反应程度。”</p><p>他们表示，如果哈里斯获胜，企业税路径的不确定性将在短期内增加，不过中期来看，关税风险的降低可能会给股市带来支撑。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国大选后股市怎么走？大摩小摩达成共识：得看美债收益率“脸色”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-04 19:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1206482.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月4日，摩根大通和摩根士丹利的策略师们一致认为：美国债券收益率将在周二大选之后决定美国股市的走势。以Michael Wilson为首的摩根士丹利团队表示，如果唐纳德•特朗普获胜以及共和党横扫国会，随后10年期美国国债收益率因经济增长改善的预期而出现有限波动，这将对股市构成利好。他们表示，在这种情况下，金融股和工业股等周期性股票将表现出色。但他们表示，如果市场对美国财政前景的担忧导致收益率“大幅...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1206482.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. 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