山雨欲来？不安情绪席卷股债汇市场！

金十数据11-01

投资者一直在押注下周的美国总统大选将引发股票、债券和外汇市场大幅波动。 Ice BofA Move Index是衡量美国国债市场未来走势的关键指标，该指标10月份上涨了近40%，并在本周早些时候触及一年多来的最高水平。 “近期最现实的风险是选举结果。”PineBridge Investments全球信贷和固定收益主管Steven Oh表示。在周二投票之前，衡量未来30天外汇和股市潜在波动的...

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Anxiety swept the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CME":1,"VXX":0.9,"TVIX":0.9,"SVXY":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"VIXY":0.6,"VIXmain":0.6},"content_text":"投资者一直在押注下周的美国总统大选将引发股票、债券和外汇市场大幅波动。\nIce BofA Move Index是衡量美国国债市场未来走势的关键指标，该指标10月份上涨了近40%，并在本周早些时候触及一年多来的最高水平。\n\n\n\n“近期最现实的风险是选举结果。”PineBridge Investments全球信贷和固定收益主管Steven Oh表示。\n在周二投票之前，衡量未来30天外汇和股市潜在波动的基准指数也有所上升。民调显示共和党候选人特朗普和民主党候选人哈里斯之间的竞争非常激烈。\n投资者表示，与中东冲突升级的可能性或对美联储降息步伐的担忧相比，这场势均力敌的竞选对市场的影响更大。\n“对我们来说，这次选举真的很重要......而且比美联储或经济数据现在告诉你的要多，”RBC GAM Bluebay美国固定收益主管Andrzej Skiba表示。\n最近几周，美国国债已经大幅遭遇抛售，因为投资者判断共和党获胜可能导致通胀性政策的可能性越来越大。反映市场对美国国债波动性预期的Move指数上升，表明投资者预计未来将出现进一步波动。\nJohn Hancock Investment Management联席首席投资策略师Emily Roland表示，在大选的另一边，“你可能会看到债券的评级大幅调整。”\n她说，“一旦噪音消失，债券投资者将能够更多地关注反通胀趋势，”这应该会推动收益率回落。收益率与债券价格走势相反。不过，她补充称，共和党在白宫和国会上下两院大获全胜等结果可能进一步推高收益率。\n华尔街最著名的波动率指标VIX指数整体上保持相对平静，但由于美国科技股引领股市抛售，该指数周四攀升至23以上。\nVIX指数反映了标普500指数未来30天的隐含波动率，在过去三个月的大部分时间里一直低于20的长期平均水平。\n然而，分析师表示，近几个月来，相对于实际波动率（股市发生的实际波动），该指数已经异常高，甚至在周四的上涨之前就是如此。\n德意志银行首席全球策略师Binky Chadha表示，VIX指数“看起来并不高，但如果你把它与实际波动率进行比较，它非常高......隐含波动率告诉你，市场认为存在大量风险。”\n通常，VIX的交易价格比实际波动率的滞后指数高出几个点，但两者之间的差距最近急剧扩大。截至周三收盘，VIX指数比实际波动率高出近12点，接近自8月因股市抛售而短暂飙升以来的最大差距。\n随着交易员就对美国进口商品征收全面关税等政策建议的潜在影响展开辩论，外汇市场预期波动率也大幅上升。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）一篮子发达市场货币的隐含波动率指数本周触及自2023年初以来的最高水平，而其墨西哥比索波动率指数飙升至自特朗普首次担任总统以来的最高水平。\n\n\n\n渣打银行G10外汇研究主管Steve Englander周三告诉客户，外汇市场的波动比最近几轮选举周期更为剧烈。这反映了“选举结果的不确定性，以及特朗普获胜后政策议程的不确定性，以及结果是共和党大获全胜还是国会分裂的不确定性”。\n历史上，隐含波动率往往会在总统选举前上升，并在选举后迅速消散，许多分析师和投资者预计这种情况会重演。\nEnglander表示，“随着选举结果被推断出来”，汇率波动可能会开始逆转。Brandywine Global的投资组合经理John McClain表示：“市场讨厌不确定性，但一旦有了确定性，市场就会继续前进。”\n然而，由于民调显示选举正处于关键时刻，一些人警告称，波动性可能会比平时持续更长时间，特别是在选举结果受到挑战的情况下。\nPinebridge的Oh表示，有可能出现“一场非常、非常势均力敌的争议性选举，导致结果并将在很长一段时间内受到挑战”，“排除暴力的可能性并不是一个必然的结论，尽管这是我们希望避免的。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2480786076"}