美银Harnett：大选后最可能出的逆转交易——"买入美债"

华尔街见闻11-04

美国大选迫在眉睫之际，美银证券首席投资策略师Mike Hartnett提出了一个逆向思维的投资建议："买入美债"或将成为大选后最具潜力的交易机会。在最新发布的《Flow Show》报告中，Hartnett写道，过去四个月美元和美债收益率持续走强，主要源于市场对特朗普胜选预期升温。然而，正是这种过于一致的市场预期，反而使得美元和美债收益率面临潜在调整风险。Hartnett分析称，这是由于无论是特朗普...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2480368676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2493333c086c47deb861eb4b20768041","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-11-04 07:03","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2480368676","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美银Harnett：大选后最可能出的逆转交易——\"买入美债\"","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>美国大选迫在眉睫之际，美银证券首席投资策略师Mike Hartnett提出了一个逆向思维的投资建议：\"买入美债\"或将成为大选后最具潜力的交易机会。在最新发布的《Flow Show》报告中，Hartnett写道，过去四个月美元和美债收益率持续走强，主要源于市场对特朗普胜选预期升温。然而，正是这种过于一致的市场预期，反而使得美元和美债收益率面临潜在调整风险。Hartnett分析称，这是由于无论是特朗普...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732770\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美银Harnett：大选后最可能出的逆转交易——\"买入美债\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银Harnett：大选后最可能出的逆转交易——\"买入美债\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-04 07:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732770><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国大选迫在眉睫之际，美银证券首席投资策略师Mike Hartnett提出了一个逆向思维的投资建议：\"买入美债\"或将成为大选后最具潜力的交易机会。在最新发布的《Flow Show》报告中，Hartnett写道，过去四个月美元和美债收益率持续走强，主要源于市场对特朗普胜选预期升温。然而，正是这种过于一致的市场预期，反而使得美元和美债收益率面临潜在调整风险。Hartnett分析称，这是由于无论是特朗普...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732770\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_TN","symbol_name":"超10年美债","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732770","article_id":"2480368676","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/2493333c086c47deb861eb4b20768041"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3732770","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480368676","pubTimestamp":1730675022,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"理由是若新政府意识到通胀问题，可能会任命偏鹰派的财政部官员，从而利好美债，利空黄金。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","UTHY":"US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","USVN":"US TREASURY 7 YEAR NOTE ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","UTRE":"US Treasury 3 Year Note ETF","UTWY":"US Treasury 20 Year Bond ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UFIV":"US Treasury 5 Year Note ETF","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"Bank of America Harnett: The most likely reversal trade after the election-\"buy U.S. bonds\"","themeId":"394a67b7df7548e0a8644fb63a7b0643","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7508108dedf0dff87ec7035b6c5e1da","symbols_score_info":{"UTWY":1,"BND":1,"UTRE":1,"UTHY":1,"USVN":1,"UFIV":1,"TLT":0.9,"IEF":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6},"content_text":"美国大选迫在眉睫之际，美银证券首席投资策略师Mike Hartnett提出了一个逆向思维的投资建议：\"买入美债\"或将成为大选后最具潜力的交易机会。在最新发布的《Flow Show》报告中，Hartnett写道，过去四个月美元和美债收益率持续走强，主要源于市场对特朗普胜选预期升温。然而，正是这种过于一致的市场预期，反而使得美元和美债收益率面临潜在调整风险。Hartnett分析称，这是由于无论是特朗普还是哈里斯当选，新政府都可能在2025年采取行动控制预算赤字。原因在于选民对通胀和生活成本上升的强烈不满，这一点已明显反映在拜登持续走低的支持率上（如下图所示，Hartnett认为，即使在失业率处于低位的情况下，拜登的支持率仍持续走低，这正反映了通胀对选情的巨大杀伤力。）在这种背景下，美国新一届政府可能会任命偏鹰派的财政部官员，这将为长期美债带来显著投资机会。Hartnett的三大“逆向思维”投资思路在这种背景下，Hartnett提出了三大值得关注的逆向投资思路。1. 特朗普获胜并非利好股市。理由是特朗普的减税和关税政策可能进一步推高通胀，反而引发市场调整。相反，哈里斯当选可能维持现状，利好全球化和科技股。2. 全球市场将跑赢美国市场。理由特朗普的关税政策可能促使亚欧央行采取激进降息措施，叠加地缘政治风险缓和带来的油价下行，从而推动当地市场走强。3. 长期美债将迎来投资机会。理由是若新政府意识到通胀问题，可能会任命偏鹰派的财政部官员，利好美债，利空黄金。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2480368676"}