海通国际：运动品牌优选经营稳健或业绩筑底制造端关注自身强Alpha

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智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，品牌端，尽管24Q3国内服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售表现环比Q2有所下滑，但自7月以来零售同比增速呈现逐月改善趋势，建议重点关注业绩稳健向好，或有望充分筑底的优质品牌公司。制造端，24Q3海外出口环比Q2整体加速，9月中国与越南纺服出口增速均环比下降、但相比之下中国更具韧性。伴随下半年基数开始逐步走高，仍然看好能在核心客户中持续提升供应商份额，以及自身核心客户经营...

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The manufacturing side focuses on its own strong Alpha","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300979":1,"01836":0.9,"02313":0.9,"03998":0.9,"06110":0.9,"00551":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，品牌端，尽管24Q3国内服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售表现环比Q2有所下滑，但自7月以来零售同比增速呈现逐月改善趋势，建议重点关注业绩稳健向好，或有望充分筑底的优质品牌公司。制造端，24Q3海外出口环比Q2整体加速，9月中国与越南纺服出口增速均环比下降、但相比之下中国更具韧性。伴随下半年基数开始逐步走高，仍然看好能在核心客户中持续提升供应商份额，以及自身核心客户经营景气度稳健的优质制造企业。海通国际主要观点如下：近期多家海外运动公司上调全年指引，奢侈品收入增速进一步放缓上周运动公司Deckers、Skechers发布最新季度业绩，并均上调全年收入及盈利指引。奢侈品方面，中国籍客群消费不振持续拖累各公司亚洲收入增速。24Q3 LVMH、Kering收入同比下降，显著不及市场一致预期；Hermès保持双位数增长，但收入增速同样逐季放缓。Deckers FY25Q2业绩显著超预期，净利率提升2.1pct。FY25Q2收入增20.1%至13.1亿美元，毛利率提升2.5pct至55.9%，净利润增35.7%至2.4亿美元，净利率提升2.1pct至18.5%。收入/净利润较市场一致预期高9%/28.7%。DTC、经销渠道收入均实现20%以上同比增长，海外地区收入持续领增，主要品牌HOKA/UGG收入分别增34.7%/12%。Skechers 24Q3多数地区收入双位数增长，库存水平提高24Q3 Skechers收入增15.9%至23.5亿美元，毛利率降0.8pct至52.1%，净利润增32.9%至1.9亿美元，净利率提升1pct至8.2%。中国外地区均实现双位数增长，美洲/EMEA/APAC(除中国)收入同比增+13.6%/+30.2%/+21%，中国收入因消费疲软下降5.7%。期末库存额同比增23.5%，环比增12.7%，主因中国库存水平较高+EMEA在途库存高。Adidas、Deckers、Skechers上调全年收入及盈利指引Adidas预计2024全年收入汇率中性增10%(原：高单位数增长)，经营利润12亿欧元(同比增347.8%，原：10亿欧元)。 Deckers预计FY2025整体收入增12%至48亿美元(原：增10%)，其中 HOKA品牌收入增速24%(原：20%)，维持UGG品牌收入中单位数增长指引。因去年同期折扣较浅，公司预计FY25H2折扣将同比加深，结合高盈利品牌和产品占比提升预期，预计FY2025年毛利率55-55.5%(原：54%，2023:55.6%)。Skechers预计2024全年收入/EPS增11.9%/21.1%(原：11.6%/18.3%)。中国籍客群消费不振拖累品牌亚洲增速，奢侈品24年收入逐季降速24Q3 Hermès/LVMH/Kering收入同比变动+10.1%/-4.4%/-15.2%，较市场一致预期+0.7%/-4.9%/-4.3%。LVMH、Kering Q1以来收入持续同比下降、降幅逐季扩大，历史增速较高的日本及亚洲(除日本)地区增速环比显著降低，判断主因日元升值+中国籍客人海内外消费不振。Hermès保持双位数增长、日本收入增速稳健，领跑行业，主因其日本客群中游客占比较低+产能提升+ASP提升+欧美地区收入维持双位数高增，但整体收入增速仍因亚洲其他地区中国籍客流下降而逐季降速。Kering、Hermès均表示中东及美国客人消费占比提升。标的方面品牌端：建议关注波司登(03998)，滔搏(06110)。制造端：建议关注申洲国际(02313)，裕元集团(00551)，九兴控股(01836)，华利集团(300979.SZ)。风险提示消费者喜好改变，行业竞争加剧，经济下行零售环境疲软。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2479724481"}

海通国际：运动品牌优选经营稳健或业绩筑底 制造端关注自身强Alpha

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海通国际：运动品牌优选经营稳健或业绩筑底制造端关注自身强Alpha