头部光伏公司第三季度减亏，行业触底后开始减产保价

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10月以来光伏股走出大幅反弹的行情，是否预示着全行业有望在近两个季度迎来业绩触底后的反转？光伏产能供需矛盾下，产品价格连续下跌，企业盈利承压，全行业迎来史上最严峻的挑战。三季度以来，围绕化解出清过剩产能、减产保价、防止过度内卷，光伏行业座谈会屡次召开，效果如何？随着A股三季报落幕，光伏板块的业绩表现清晰明了，前三季度全产业链降价与产能去化背景下，组件、电池、硅片龙头企业普遍业绩亏损，产能与业绩...

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光伏产能供需矛盾下，产品价格连续下跌，企业盈利承压，全行业迎来史上最严峻的挑战。三季度以来，围绕化解出清过剩产能、减产保价、防止过度内卷，光伏行业座谈会屡次召开，效果如何？随着A股三季报落幕，光伏板块的业绩表现清晰明了，前三季度全产业链降价与产能去化背景下，组件、电池、硅片龙头企业普遍业绩亏损，产能与业绩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-10-31/doc-incunpix9401023.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"688472","symbol_name":"阿特斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-10-31/doc-incunpix9401023.shtml","article_id":"2479403038","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2024-10-31/doc-incunpix9401023.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, 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out","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600438":1,"601012":1,"688223":1,"688303":1,"688472":1,"688599":1,"002459":1,"002129":1},"content_text":"10月以来光伏股走出大幅反弹的行情，是否预示着全行业有望在近两个季度迎来业绩触底后的反转？ 光伏产能供需矛盾下，产品价格连续下跌，企业盈利承压，全行业迎来史上最严峻的挑战。三季度以来，围绕化解出清过剩产能、减产保价、防止过度内卷，光伏行业座谈会屡次召开，效果如何？随着A股三季报落幕，光伏板块的业绩表现清晰明了，前三季度全产业链降价与产能去化背景下，组件、电池、硅片龙头企业普遍业绩亏损，产能与业绩规模越大的公司，亏损幅度越居前。单看第三季度，减产保价展现出效果，隆基绿能（601012.SH）、通威股份（600438.SH）、大全能源（688303.SH）的单季度亏损规模环比收窄。第一财经记者注意到，产业链降价之际，计提资产减值（主要是存货跌价减值）亦成为组件、硅片厂商业绩下降的主要原因之一。10月以来光伏股走出大幅反弹的行情，是否预示着全行业有望在近两个季度迎来业绩触底后的反转？通威、隆基第三季度减亏这是光伏行业的第四次洗牌，产能出清与价格下跌的剧烈程度，令从业者与投资人始料未及。2024年前三季度，光伏主产业链价格大幅下跌，跌价由硅料传导至硅片、电池片、组件，价格虽在9月初后企稳并形成回升趋势，但第三季度仍处于价格与成本倒挂水平，使得相关上市公司盈利能力承压。硅片是光伏产能出清的重灾区，前三季度，硅片“双雄”隆基绿能、TCL中环（002129.SZ）归母净利润分别亏损65亿元、60亿元，两家公司前三季度合计亏损125亿元。TCL中环在接受调研时表示，本轮光伏周期的复杂性比以往更高，最核心问题是总产能体量较大。据悉，TCL中环在8月份进行策略调整，包括价格、稼动率与产业协同等方面，公司发展方向仍以光伏硅片为核心，适当布局一些组件。隆基绿能在今年8月底适度上调了硅片价格，目的在于推动行业尽早结束低价竞争的无序状态。单看第三季度，隆基绿能业绩亏损收窄，实现营业收入200.64亿元，同比环比均下降，归母净利润亏损12.78亿元，第二季度为亏损28.99亿元。产业链降价潮中，部分组件价格已经跌破0.7元/W，廉价的组件已经不是刺激终端装机需求的关键因素。三季报显示，6家组件厂中，阿特斯（688472.SH）、晶科能源（688223.SH）仍能保持盈利，隆基绿能、通威股份（600438.SH）、晶澳科技（002459.SZ）、天合光能（688599.SH）4家录得亏损。通威股份的一体化模式具备组件、硅料和电池业务，前三季度公司实现营业收入682.72亿元，同比减少38.73%，归母净利润亏损39.73亿；第三季度公司实现业绩减亏，环比大幅减亏至-8.44亿元（第二季度为-23.43亿元）。组件厂中，晶澳科技和天合光能的业绩表现较为意外，第三季度晶澳科技实现盈利3.89亿元。而天合光能在上半年盈利的情况下，第三季度亏损13.73亿元。产能出清过程中，计提资产减值侵蚀了上市公司的利润表。第一财经统计显示，第三季度，通威股份的计提存货跌价准备10.66亿元，金额为上述龙头企业中最高；天合光能计提的存货跌价损失及合同履约成本减值损失为4.24亿元，加上固定资产、应收账款等损失，合计计提信用及资产减值准备共计7.43亿元。晶科能源曾凭借N型组件优势，在第一季度盈利11.76亿元，第二、第三季度净利润受计提资产减值的影响，分别下滑至2435.7万元、1487.42万元。前三季度，晶科能源计提的存货跌价损失、固定资产减值损失、合同资产减值损失达7.04亿元。估值反弹，短期价格企稳光伏行业产能出清、价格见底的速度取决于全行业协同配合发力。对于硅片价格的走势，TCL中环表示，如果没有行业的协同，硅片价格可能会掉得更低。所以我们第一步的期望是企稳，第二步是回升。从名义产能去看，预计2025年行业供需错配的问题仍然存在。但是随着行业企业经营压力的持续，行业实际的产出和需求之间会逐渐得到平衡，推动产业链价格逐步修复。硅料、硅片、电池、组件四大产品是否已经触及“市场底”？价格方面，四大产品短期价格企稳。根据10月31日，集邦新能源发布最新光伏产业链价格，硅料实际需求有减无增，价格基本企稳，单晶致密料的主流成交价格为35元/kg，在近期硬性管控政策出台的预期逐步膨胀，上下游观望情绪渐浓。据硅业分会数据，7～9月国内多晶硅月产量13万～14万吨，较前期高点1万吨显著下降，行业新增产能投产放缓，部分老旧产能逐步出清。周内硅片全线价格暂稳，目前电池片在主链的供给侧出清较为顺利，组件头部厂商挺价意愿强烈，但整体仍处于减产挺价状态。某TMT行业分析师对记者表示，光伏主材环节面临亏现金流局面，预计市场化出清程度会加深。但考虑到行业调整时间和上一轮资金储备情况，预计完成调整尚需时日。“供应方面，行业自律相关呼吁和会议仍在初期和发酵阶段，价格企稳主要是全行业减产保价的结果，比如硅料成交氛围冷清，硅片需求低迷使得厂家出货困难，而182P型硅片已是少有生产。”上述分析师说，“此前协会提出0.68元/W组件成本价等事件，我们认为低价组件扰乱市场秩序的阶段有望结束，并进入加速产能出清的过程。”组件是直面终端客户的光伏产品，在上述分析师看来，组件环节价格持续走低，是光伏行业出清的最后一环，一旦光伏组件价格跌幅超预期，将大概率意味着光伏产业的出清正在进入最后时点。近期随着宏观层面积极信号密集释放，供给侧政策预期推动板块股价上涨，光伏板块迎来反弹。根据Wind光伏指数收盘价计算，9月1日至10月30日光伏指数涨幅为38.98%，跑赢上证指数23.5个百分点，有20只光伏股10月的累计涨幅超过20%。有观点称，估值反转先行或意味着光伏主产业链的盈利有望迎来底部反转。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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