招财日报2024.10.25 EDA集团控股、ServiceNow、歌尔股份点评

招银国际10-25

公司点评EDA集团控股（2505 HK，首予买入，目标价：3.57港元）- 乘B2C出口电商行业发展之东风EDA 集团是一家面向电商的一站式端到端供应链解决方案提供商，其提供的供应链解决方案涵盖跨境物流、海外仓储和履约交付服务，并与其易达云平台（EDA Cloud）无缝集成。易达云平台是由集团自主研发的平台，覆盖一系列全面的数字化供应管理工具，可提高参与各方的运营效率，是 EDA 集团生态系统的...

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Goertek","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NOW":1,"02505":0.9},"content_text":"公司点评EDA集团控股（2505 HK，首予买入，目标价：3.57港元）- 乘B2C出口电商行业发展之东风EDA 集团是一家面向电商的一站式端到端供应链解决方案提供商，其提供的供应链解决方案涵盖跨境物流、海外仓储和履约交付服务，并与其易达云平台（EDA Cloud）无缝集成。易达云平台是由集团自主研发的平台，覆盖一系列全面的数字化供应管理工具，可提高参与各方的运营效率，是 EDA 集团生态系统的核心支柱，有助于提高物流供应商与终端客户之间的连接效率。根据弗若斯特沙利文（F&S）数据，以 2022 年的收入计算，EDA 集团在中国所有主要采用海外仓备货模式的 B2C 出口电商供应链解决方案提供商中排名第七，市场份额约为 0.4%。我们看好 EDA 集团的长期业务发展潜力，这主要得益于行业需求的快速增长，以及其能帮助客户提高库存周转效率及履约效率的能力。基于 2023-2026E 31.9%的营收 CAGR，我们预测公司的经调整净利润 CAGR 将达到 34.3%。我们的目标价为每股 3.57 港元，基于 11x 2024E PE，与可比公司均值一致，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。ServiceNow（NOW US，买入，目标价：1075 美元）- 3Q24 业绩良好；持 续受益于生成式 AI 发展ServiceNow 公布 3Q24 业绩：总收入同比增长 22%至 28 亿美元，较一致预期高2%；非GAAP净利润同比增长29%至7.75亿美元，较一致预期高 7%，主要得益于收入表现好于预期以及运营效率提升。固定汇率下 3Q24 cRPO同比增长 23.5%，较此前指引高出 150bps，主要得益于大订单的强劲趋势以及生成式 AI解决方案的持续渗透。展望 4Q24E，管理层预计订阅收入/cRPO在固定汇率下同比增长 20.5/21.5%，非 GAAP 运营利润率同比稳定在 29%。考虑生成式 AI 商业化落地良好，我们将 FY24-26 总收入预测提高约 1%。我们将估值窗口前移至 FY25，将目标价上调至 1075.0 美元，对应 48x FY25 EV/EBITDA（前值：900 美元，基于 50x FY24 EV/EBITDA）。维持“买入”评级。歌尔股份（002241 CH，买入，目标价：27.39 元人民币）-盈利恢复持续，有望受益于 XR/TWS/游戏机行业新品发布歌尔股份三季度收入/归母净利润分别同比增长 2%/138%，超越此前市场一致预期。三季度毛利率达到 11.4%，同比增长 1.2 个百分点，环比下降了 2.2个百分点，同比上升主要是由于产能利用率增加以及生产效率提升。展望今年四季度及 FY25E，我们期待歌尔能够继续盈利修复表现，受益于毛利率同比回升、严格的费用管控以及 TWS 声学/XR/游戏机等多种新产品的增长。在过去两年，歌尔受到在大客户 AirPods 产品线份额变化，以及 AirPods 产品大盘出货疲软的影响; 随着供应份额的稳步回升以及 AirPods 4 新产品推出，我们预期该产品线相关收入回暖。另外，歌尔也将受益于今年下半年 Meta 新推出的 Quest 3S、即将推出的游戏机产品 Sony PS5 Pro，以及其他 ARVR厂商推出的 XR 新产品。受益于温和的业务增长及强力有效的经营效率提升和费用控制，我们预计公司 FY24/25E 归母净利润将同比增长 164%/30%。我们微幅调整公司 FY25/26E EPS 预测值 6%/6%，以反映更好的业务收入情况及费用支出管控，新目标价 27.39 元人民币（前值：25.90 元人民币）依然是基于 25 倍的 FY25E 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