华尔街为何继续看涨特斯拉？

财经杂志10-27

特斯拉给出的销量增长预测令分析师们深受鼓舞文｜埃米丽·巴里编辑 | 郭力群周四（10月24日），特斯拉(TSLA)在公布第三季度财报后股价收涨21.9%，创下有记录以来的第二大单日涨幅，根据道琼斯市场数据(Dow Jones Market Data)，周四的涨幅仅次于2013年5月9日24.4%的涨幅。特斯拉已抹去今年年初以来的跌幅，年内上涨4%。周四特斯拉市值增加了1500亿美元，创下有记录以来...

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be bullish on Tesla?","themeId":"a7e3bfe00504637eb4e6b3b09c6a0b49","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1},"content_text":"特斯拉给出的销量增长预测令分析师们深受鼓舞文｜埃米丽·巴里编辑 | 郭力群周四（10月24日），特斯拉(TSLA)在公布第三季度财报后股价收涨21.9%，创下有记录以来的第二大单日涨幅，根据道琼斯市场数据(Dow Jones Market Data)，周四的涨幅仅次于2013年5月9日24.4%的涨幅。特斯拉已抹去今年年初以来的跌幅，年内上涨4%。周四特斯拉市值增加了1500亿美元，创下有记录以来的最大单日市值涨幅，超过了福特汽车(F）、通用汽车(GM)和斯特兰蒂斯(STLA)的市值总和。Piper Sandler分析师亚历山大·波特(Alexander Potter)在特斯拉股价大涨之后发布的研报中总结了推动股价上涨的因素。波特指出：“从各个方面来看，特斯拉第三季度业绩的表现都好得出乎人们的意料。”特斯拉近来存在的一个问题是，该公司经常强调愿景，但很少给出细节，10月早些时候举办的Robotaxi Day活动就体现了这一点，就连看涨的分析师也在活动结束后指出，特斯拉没有给出自动驾驶出租车服务的定价等方面的细节。但波特认为，这次的财报电话会议出现了一些变化。他在报告中写道：“特斯拉披露了比以往更多的信息，尤其是关于2025年前景的信息，同时重申了（在2025年上半年）推出新车的计划。马斯克预测说，2025年交付量将增长20%至30%，这在一定程度上要归功于即将推出的新车，即使他给出的指引被证明太过乐观，与我们目前8%的预期相比仍有很大的增长空间。”分析人士显然希望获得更多的信息，包括自动驾驶软件对特斯拉财务状况的贡献等，但波特认为，要求这么多是在“吹毛求疵”。波特在特斯拉财报电话会议结束后写道：“对特斯拉的增长前景感到非常乐观。”他重申对特斯拉股票的评级为“增持”。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师Edison Yu也深受销量预期数据的鼓舞。他在研报中写道：“展望2025年，特斯拉管理层初步预测销量将同比增长20%至30%，大大高于我们的普遍预期。虽然我们不完全认为特斯拉的销量能达到这样的水平，但这样的预测缓解了人们对该公司明年增长轨迹的担忧。”Yu对特斯拉股票的评级为“买入”，目标价为295美元。William Blair分析师杰德·多尔谢默(Jed Dorsheimer)看到了许多财务改善的迹象，能源业务的利润率创下历史新高，汽车业务毛利率（不含积分租赁）也有所上升，17.1%的汽车业务毛利率超出了市场普遍预期。多尔海默在研报中写道：“这主要得益于迄今为止每辆车的最低销售成本为35106美元，以及Cybertruck在首次交付一年后毛利率转为正值，我们预计特斯拉将能够将毛利率保持在15%以上，不会出现进一步的实质性恶化。”Truist Securities分析师威廉·斯坦(William Stein)则认为，特斯拉的预测依然不够清晰明确。他在研报中写道：“第三季度有几个方面特斯拉做得并不完美，不过，它们的重要性远不及许多悬而未决的问题。”斯坦指出，例如，特斯拉“从未在透露要发布新车之后的一年内交付过该公司所说的新车，最近，除了Cybercab和Cybervan，该公司没有推出任何新车，特斯拉在2025年上半年交付什么才能带来20%至30%的销量增长？”此外，如果上述问题的答案是“成本降低20%的Model 3或Model Y”，斯坦想知道这是否会被证明是“空卡路里”，即没有多大意义的增长。斯坦对特斯拉股票的评级为“持有”，他在特斯拉公布财报后将目标价从236美元上调至238美元。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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