市场重估“Mag 7”：特斯拉出局，奈飞顶上？

蒋紫涵10-28

如果想继续在美股“七巨头”中占有一席之地，特斯拉还需努力。 10月27日，雅虎金融的分析师Seana Smith表示，特斯拉的基本面被过度炒作，加之近期表现不佳、估值过高，且过于依赖核心汽车业务，在AI和机器人领域的投资仍需数年才能见效，这些原因导致了特斯拉被华尔街质疑能否继续留在美股“七巨头”的行列之中。截至10月25日下午，覆盖特斯拉的分析师中，仅有略超过40%的分析师将其评级列为买入。根据...

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href=https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3731850?extract=1><strong>蒋紫涵</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如果想继续在美股“七巨头”中占有一席之地，特斯拉还需努力。\n10月27日，雅虎金融的分析师Seana Smith表示，特斯拉的基本面被过度炒作，加之近期表现不佳、估值过高，且过于依赖核心汽车业务，在AI和机器人领域的投资仍需数年才能见效，这些原因导致了特斯拉被华尔街质疑能否继续留在美股“七巨头”的行列之中。\n截至10月25日下午，覆盖特斯拉的分析师中，仅有略超过40%的分析师将其评级列为买入。根据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3731850?extract=1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0964807845.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) 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Inc.","AMZN":"亚马逊","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","XMAG":"Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF"},"translate_title":"Market revaluation \"Mag 7\": Tesla out, Netflix on top?","themeId":"a7e3bfe00504637eb4e6b3b09c6a0b49","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XMAG":1,"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1,"NFLX":0.9,"META":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"NVDA":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"GOOGL":0.6,"AAPL":0.6},"content_text":"如果想继续在美股“七巨头”中占有一席之地，特斯拉还需努力。\n10月27日，雅虎金融的分析师Seana Smith表示，特斯拉的基本面被过度炒作，加之近期表现不佳、估值过高，且过于依赖核心汽车业务，在AI和机器人领域的投资仍需数年才能见效，这些原因导致了特斯拉被华尔街质疑能否继续留在美股“七巨头”的行列之中。\n截至10月25日下午，覆盖特斯拉的分析师中，仅有略超过40%的分析师将其评级列为买入。根据彭博社的数据，这使得特斯拉成为美股“七巨头”中最不受分析师欢迎的股票。\n替补名单中，奈飞最得人心。奈飞的自由现金流一直保持强劲，盈利、指引均表现良好。分析师普遍看涨奈飞，87%的分析师给予买入评级，仅有3%建议卖出。\n美股“七巨头”包括英伟达、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、微软和特斯拉，这些公司在2023年主导了市场，并有望在第三季度财报季中成为美股市场的关键驱动力。根据FactSet的数据，预计美股“七巨头”的同比年增长率将在第三季度达到18.1%。\n特斯拉出局？\n特斯拉第三季度的财报出乎意料的亮眼，结束连续两个季度的利润下跌后创下17%的利润增长，使其创下十多年来最大的单日涨幅纪录。\n但是，华尔街还是再次开始重新评估特斯拉在美股“七巨头”中的地位，因为第三季度的强劲财报还不够——特斯拉仍然有可能在大型科技公司中落后，因为其基本面被过度炒作。\n自由资本市场的首席全球策略师Jay Woods将特斯拉比作比特币，认为其股票交易更多地是基于“希望和梦想”，而非基本面。Woods在雅虎财经的早间简报中警告称：\n\n“特斯拉曾经有过辉煌的时刻……在我看来，它更像是网络泡沫时期的思科或者英特尔，现在我们已经开始关注其他的事物。”\n\n虽然特斯拉的CEO马斯克常常将特斯拉视为科技公司，但特斯拉在人工智能和机器人领域的投资可能需要数年才能见效。与此同时，特斯拉必须依赖于改善其核心汽车业务来推动发展，这与其他“七巨头”形成了鲜明对比。\n资深科技投资者Dan Morgan告诉雅虎金融：\n“我自1990年以来一直在科技行业，我记得‘四骑士’：思科、英特尔、戴尔和微软，我们没有把汽车股票加入这一行列。”\n此外，特斯拉近期的不佳表现和高估值进一步削弱了其在美股“七巨头”中的地位。根据雅虎财经的数据，特斯拉的前瞻性市盈率接近73倍，远高于美股“七巨头”中的其他公司。\n奈飞替代特斯拉？\nWealth Enhancement集团的Ayako Yoshioka告诉雅虎金融，替代特斯拉美股“七巨头”地位的公司中，奈飞“最为合适”——得益于强劲的盈利和良好的指引，奈飞的股价在最近创下历史新高。\n自年初以来，奈飞股价上涨了55%，在美股“七巨头”中仅次于英伟达和Meta。过去一年，奈飞累计涨超84%。\n投资组合财富顾问的Jesus Alvarado-Martinez表示，成为美股“七巨头”的关键在于“现金流”，而奈飞“完全符合这个标准”。Alvarado-Martinez表示：\n\n“奈飞的自由现金流一直保持强劲……卓越的盈利、卓越的自由现金流以及卓越的用户数量。”\n\n自疫情以来，奈飞的自由现金流稳步上升，第三季度达到了21.9亿美元，较去年同期的18.9亿美元同比增长15.87%；奈飞2023年的自由现金流累计达到69.3亿美元，2022年为16.2亿美元。\n美国银行分析师Jessica Reif Ehrlich认为，奈飞不断增长的自由现金流是该股的“催化剂”，预计自由现金流在2025年将上升至89亿美元，2026年将达到111.6亿美元。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 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