Advantrade:海上钻探成未来增长点

市场资讯10-23

10月23日，由于担心市场供应过剩和油价低于去年水平，石油公司对生产增长支出越来越谨慎。这是全球最大油田服务提供商 SLB 发出的信息之一。Advantrade认为，短周期市场（尤其是美国页岩油）将继续疲软。　　海上和其他长周期支出往往对油价波动更具弹性，目前仍保持相对强劲。但Advantrade表示，美国的活动和支出正在下降，明年将保持持平或略低的趋势，海上钻探和开发将成为该行业未来的增长引擎...

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吹捧“多年增长周期”，并表示上游支出正在加速，运营商投资于更多的天然气生产和长周期开发、生产能力扩张以及勘探和评估。一年后，国际支出继续增长，但越来越多的石油和天然气生产商对支出采取了谨慎的态度。“尽管由于宏观环境的影响，过去几个月上游支出增长率有所放缓，但我们预计未来几年上游投资仍将保持稳定，”SLB 的 Le Peuch 表示。SLB 表示，海上投资将推动投资，该公司在国际市场和海上的投资比增长停滞的美国页岩油更多。“到 2025 年，我们认为国际市场的上游支出可能会增长到低到中等个位数，而北美的支出将持平或略有下降，”Le Peuch 在财报电话会议上表示，并补充说前景将取决于地缘政治环境和大宗商品价格。\n　　Advantrade表示，今年下半年，由于非 OPEC+ 产油国产量增加、OPEC+ 供应不确定性以及美国和欧洲经济增长放缓，市场供应过剩的担忧导致油价下跌。这导致许多客户对活动和可自由支配的支出采取谨慎态度。然而，Advantrade预计美国活动不会在短期内反弹，由于运营效率的提高，任何潜在的天然气钻井平台增加都可能被石油钻井平台进一步下降所抵消。\n　　Advantrade表示，SLB 并不是唯一一家警告美国支出和活动水平下降的油田服务公司。规模较小的服务提供商正面临更具挑战性的美国市场，因为活动放缓正在给他们的定价带来压力。\n　　近年来，效率大幅提升。根据《华尔街日报》援引富国银行的估计，去年美国页岩油田单钻机的石油产量增长了 13%，预计到 2024 年将再增长 15%。Advantrade表示，油价下跌和不确定性增加使上游运营商对未来支出更加谨慎，尤其是在美国页岩油田。但自去年以来，石油和天然气的长期基本面并没有发生重大变化，能源安全和需求的持续增长将使在当前周期疲软中幸存下来的服务提供商受益。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 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