国联证券：24Q3大众品需求延续分化期待修复弹性

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智通财经APP获悉，国联证券发布研报称，2024Q3餐饮需求依旧疲软，根据Wind数据，2024年7、8月餐饮较2019年收入复合增速分别为3.63%、2.25%，表现依旧平淡。但9月以来，多项消费刺激政策逐步落地、传导，期待大众餐饮修复弹性，需求端有望企稳改善。值得关注的是，24Q3大众品原材料成本红利延续，大豆、生鲜乳价格环比进一步下行，白砂糖、棕榈油价格仍处低位，企业端成本压力趋缓。业绩方面...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1195257.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国联证券发布研报称，2024Q3餐饮需求依旧疲软，根据Wind数据，2024年7、8月餐饮较2019年收入复合增速分别为3.63%、2.25%，表现依旧平淡。但9月以来，多项消费刺激政策逐步落地、传导，期待大众餐饮修复弹性，需求端有望企稳改善。值得关注的是，24Q3大众品原材料成本红利延续，大豆、生鲜乳价格环比进一步下行，白砂糖、棕榈油价格仍处低位，企业端成本压力趋缓。业绩方面...</p>\n\n<a 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elasticity","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601456":1,"01456":1,"01579":0.9,"02319":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国联证券发布研报称，2024Q3餐饮需求依旧疲软，根据Wind数据，2024年7、8月餐饮较2019年收入复合增速分别为3.63%、2.25%，表现依旧平淡。但9月以来，多项消费刺激政策逐步落地、传导，期待大众餐饮修复弹性，需求端有望企稳改善。值得关注的是，24Q3大众品原材料成本红利延续，大豆、生鲜乳价格环比进一步下行，白砂糖、棕榈油价格仍处低位，企业端成本压力趋缓。业绩方面，预计Q3大众品表现仍延续分化。国联证券主要观点如下：餐饮弱复苏，期待修复弹性2024Q3餐饮需求依旧疲软，根据Wind数据，2024年7、8月餐饮较2019年收入复合增速分别为3.63%、2.25%，表现依旧平淡。但9月以来，多项消费刺激政策逐步落地、传导，期待大众餐饮修复弹性，需求端有望企稳改善：据中国烹饪协会开展的“2024年国庆假期餐饮业经营情况调研”，受访餐饮企业假期营业收入与去年国庆假期7天相比上涨2.0%；客流量与去年国庆假期7天相比上涨5.6%。家庭端分化，需求有望企稳2024Q3家庭端分化特征延续，高线城市略有承压，低线城市韧性充足：7、8月我国乡村社零增速保持领先，分别同比+4.6%、3.9%，消费向着多样化、品牌化方向发展，支撑家庭端消费的韧性。随着9月以来“一揽子”政策落地，下调贷款利率+核心资产止跌回稳+消费券直接刺激，高线城市需求有望逐步企稳；“三保”+政策刺激下居民端收入及消费预期改善，低线城市需求有望保持强韧。2024Q3大众品企业成本红利进一步释放2024Q3大众品大部分原材料价格环比继续走低，成本红利进一步释放：大众品原材料自2021年开始涨价，2022年俄乌冲突导致价格进一步大幅上涨，2023年开始大部分原材料价格逐步回落至正常水平。2024Q3大众品原材料成本红利延续，大豆、生鲜乳价格环比进一步下行，白砂糖、棕榈油价格仍处低位，企业端成本压力趋缓。2024Q3大众品业绩延续分化2024Q3大众品业绩分化明显：餐饮供应链：随着“一揽子”政策落地，大众餐饮板块有望迎来修复。期待需求端弹性释放，调味品(基础调味品+复合调味品)及速冻板块经营端有望逐步转好。乳制品产业链：2024Q3龙头压力仍存，但展望后市，随着大众送礼场景复苏，乳制品需求在消费刺激政策下有望迎来修复，行业最差的时候或已过去，竞争格局优化、份额龙头集中，期待原奶价格企稳带来的乳制品产业链新周期。休闲零食：盐津铺子新渠道与品类红利或以延续。投资建议：关注需求端改善、基本面优质的大众品龙头消费预期企稳+成本红利延续，2024Q3个股表现预计延续分化，维持行业“强于大市”评级。建议关注需求端改善+基本面优质的大众品龙头：推荐受益于大众餐饮修复的餐饮供应链优质龙头海天味业(603288.SH)、天味食品(603317.SH)、颐海国际(01579)、安井食品(603345.SH)；建议关注乳制品产业链周期带来的投资机会，推荐估值底部且回报率提升的伊利股份(600887.SH)、蒙牛乳业(02319)。风险提示：宏观经济不达预期的风险、行业竞争加剧的风险、食品安全的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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国联证券：24Q3大众品需求延续分化 期待修复弹性

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国联证券：24Q3大众品需求延续分化期待修复弹性