《汇市短评》CPI数据为英国央行连续降息开绿灯

路透中文10-16

《汇市短评》CPI数据为英国央行连续降息开绿灯

路透10月16日 - 在通胀数据明显偏向温和后，英国央行加快降息步伐的风险也随之增加。英国9月消费者物价指数$(CPI.UK)$数据发布后，市场目前认为央行货币政策委员会$(MPC)$在12月会议上连续降息25个基点的可能性为70%，概率高于CPI发布前的48%0#BOEWATCH。nL6T3LS0BC

鉴于下月降息几近板上钉钉，市场将焦点集中在12月会议上。服务业通胀率下降0.6个百分点至4.9%，为2022年5月以来最低，明显低于央行对年末的5.3%预测值。英国央行鹰派官员主张在通胀持续的情况下，应该对降息保持谨慎的论调已经减弱。因此，该数据实际上为英国央行连续降息开了绿灯。

英国央行总裁贝利已经转向更为鸽派的立场，强调央行可能会变得更加激进一些，而这需要取决于数据。现在有了这些数据，看来有可能加快宽松步伐。

CFTC数据显示，交易员在英镑仍持有可观的多仓。市场对英国利率将更偏鸽派的新定价对英镑/美元来说不是个好兆头，随着汇率跌破1.30，多头平仓可能会使英镑/美元重返200日均线1.2790。

更多汇市简讯请点选 FXNEWS/CN

(Justin McQueen是路透的市场分析师。以上内容仅代表其个人观点)(完)

UK services CPI vs MPR projection https://tmsnrt.rs/4dTV48O

(编审李婷仪)

((tina.li1@thomsonreuters.com; 886-2-87297936;))

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