特斯拉ROBOTAXI DAY前瞻：关注出行领域商业宏图

华泰证券股份有...10-11

关注特斯拉Robotaxi Day，离完全无人驾驶更进一步北京时间10 月11 日早上10 点，特斯拉（TSLA US）将召开“WE, ROBOT”发布会。根据公司官方和Techweb 等消息，此次大会特斯拉预计会公布出行领域的商业计划，具体可能包括：（1）Robotaxi：自建无人驾驶出租车队以及现役特斯拉车主如何使用私家车运营；（2）智能驾驶软硬件：FSD V13以及HW5.0 等软硬件平台...

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等软硬件平台升级；（3）下一代车型平台：更适用于出行领域；（4）其余如机器人Optimus 的进展等。我们认为核心关注点包括Robotaxi推出时间规划以及智能驾驶方案的变化等。随着特斯拉Robotaxi 推进，高阶智能驾驶功能将有望受到国内用户愈加重视，推动其快速落地。看点#1：Robotaxi 有望基于下一代FSD 软硬件平台马斯克在2016 年宏图计划1.0 中即提出打造Robotaxi 车队，但由于无人驾驶的落地难度，经历过数次推迟。此次Robotaxi 发布，代表着其下一代FSD软硬件能力的大幅提升，有望能接近实现无人驾驶的安全能力。（1）硬件方面：或将搭载AI5 硬件平台。马斯克在24 年特斯拉投资者日透露下一代智驾硬件会被命名为 AI5（不再延续HW 系列命名），将于 2025 年底推出，AI5 的性能是 HW4.0 的10 倍。（2）软件方面：公司披露FSD 将在10 月升级V13 系统，接管里程在上一代FSDV12.5.2 版本上再提升6 倍。核心关注是否坚持纯视觉方案以及FSD 接管里程数何时达到正式运营要求。看点#2：Robotaxi 有望基于下一代车型伴随着特斯拉在Robotaxi 领域的商业计划发布，其或将同时推出更适合出行领域的下一代汽车平台。目前特斯拉已经发布并量产的S/X/3/Y/Cybertruck 等车型的主要定位是以驾驶员为核心的私家车，其空间和驾驶体验设计并不适用于共享出行领域。Robotaxi 或将基于公司计划在25 年量产的下一代廉价车型基础上设计，或采用两座两厢车类型，关注其是否搭载方向盘和刹车踏板等。此前特斯拉在2023 年AI Day 已经公布了其下一代车型的Unboxed Process 造车流程和工艺，新产品和工艺有望引领汽车设计和制造领域的又一次升级。看点#3：Robotaxi 基于自有车队和私家车的两种运营模式的盈利方式我们认为打造自有车队模式或类似目前Waymo 或者萝卜快跑等的Robotaxi，所需成本较高。除了整车成本外，一般还需配备云端安全员以及地勤人员负责车队管理，此外还有电费、保险、维修、网络等各种费用，前期难以获得盈利，核心是车队规模的起量，取决于特斯拉的发展规划以及拟于何时何地开展Robotaxi 业务（取得监管准入）。特斯拉作为目前第一家乘用车OEM 打造Robotaxi 产品，创新之处在于其私家车主可以闲暇时让车主动去载客。背后涉及到：（1）事故安全；（2）车厢清扫和充电费用问题；（3）车主如何加入共享车队以及特斯拉如何收费等问题亟待发布会解决。Robotaxi 商业化风起国内小马、文远、百度正在加速推进Robotaxi 商业化落地，乘用车企小鹏也在加速布局拟于2026 年推出Robotaxi，此外如祺、曹操等出行平台也在重点投资该领域以强化未来盈利。我们认为特斯拉作为自动驾驶的龙头，其品牌、技术、资金等各方面的入局有望让完全无人驾驶加快一步。特斯拉FSD 相关产业链公司包括联创电子、宇瞳光学等。风险提示：全球宏观变化影响汽车需求和新能源渗透率，Robotaxi 进展不及预期，本研报中涉及到未上市公司或未覆盖个股内容，均系对其客观公开信息的整理，并不代表本研究团队对该公司、该股票的推荐或覆盖。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Product Release","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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