经济稳步前行，这些行业正在加速起飞

金十数据10-08

市场中有许多股票与经济增长息息相关。当好消息接连传来——强劲的就业数据，通胀没有明显抬头迹象——投资者应期待未来有利的发展。 22V Research的Dennis DeBusschere认为，美国或许处于一个“刚刚好”的经济环境中，既能实现利率下调又能保持经济增长。他指出，2025年1.8%的GDP增长预期和2026年2%的预期很可能会上调，从而为每股收益（EPS）的估值提供支撑。他写道：“...

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pace","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SHW":1,"GE":1,"EPS":1,"ECL":1,"CAT":1,"LIN":1,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"FDN":0.69,"L":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"市场中有许多股票与经济增长息息相关。当好消息接连传来——强劲的就业数据，通胀没有明显抬头迹象——投资者应期待未来有利的发展。\n22V Research的Dennis DeBusschere认为，美国或许处于一个“刚刚好”的经济环境中，既能实现利率下调又能保持经济增长。他指出，2025年1.8%的GDP增长预期和2026年2%的预期很可能会上调，从而为每股收益（EPS）的估值提供支撑。\n他写道：“经济数据必须大幅改变，才能让衰退变得更有可能。”\n虽然这是好消息，但短期内市场不排除波动的可能。DeBusschere与许多人一样提到，10月对股票市场来说可能是一个棘手的月份，尤其是在选举年。投资者已经在调整仓位，准备应对潜在的市场波动。\n从长远来看，情况更加积极，这意味着选举前的市场疲软可能是一个买入机会。他认为，价值股和增长型股票在当前的经济环境下显得具有吸引力。\n此外，进入第三季度财报季时，市场对企业的预期较低。DeBusschere指出，这种保守态度可能过于谨慎，因为在正常的经济环境下，跨行业的每股收益正向调整相对普遍，特别是周期性强的行业如材料、工业和科技股，通常表现优于防御性或对利率敏感的行业。他预计这种模式将在即将到来的财报季重现。\n参考工业板块，工业精选行业SPDR交易所交易基金（ETF）的最大持仓包括GE航天航空(GE.N)、卡特彼勒(CAT.N)等；而材料精选行业SPDR ETF的最大持仓包括林德气体(LIN.O)、宣伟公司(SHW.N)和艺康集团(ECL.N)；科技精选行业SPDR ETF的最大持仓则是微软(MSFT.O)、英伟达(NVDA.O)和苹果(AAPL.O)，这三者也是标普500的最大权重股。\n总的来说，强劲的经济数据与企业利润的历史表现表明，未来几个季度，利润率和每股收益预期应该会提升。\nDeBusschere写道：“经济活动的改善和强劲的盈利能力对收益有利。如果短期内出现调整，可以借机增加风险敞口。特别是在财报季初期，企业的预期较低，这时候增加高信念个股的仓位是有道理的。”\n其他策略师同样对经济和市场持乐观态度，尽管8月和9月初股市曾出现大幅下跌。毕竟，正如Oppenheimer在近期的抛售后所指出的，投资者应准备应对时不时的波动。\n此外，凯投宏观认为，标普500指数将在年底前升至6000点，由科技股和人工智能驱动。上周，DataTrek Research表示，科技巨头的估值是值得的，德意志银行也在9月初表达了类似观点。\n总体而言，随着大选临近，市场和许多美国人一样，可能会保持紧张情绪。但乐观的理由仍然存在，经济有望继续稳步前行。\n因此，投资者即使在选举结束后也能继续获得丰厚回报。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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