央行重磅“四连发”，持股or持币过节？

Wind万得09-30

刚刚过去的周末，央行、金管局连发四新政，涉及批量调整存量房贷利率、降低首付比例等。今天（9月30日）是国庆假期前的最后一个交易日，持股还是持币又是投资者面临的两难选择。央行、金管局周末新政四连发9月29日晚间，中国人民银行会同金融监管总局发布四项金融支持房地产政策，包括完善商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机制、优化个人住房贷款最低首付款比例、优化保障性住房再贷款、延长部分房地产金融政策期限等。此外，市场...

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世上只有穷病
09-30
世上只有穷病
以前是怕半夜鸡叫，这次就怕半夜“鹰”叫
名字要起好
09-30
名字要起好
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holidays?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fa1f1777a4783280fe94e23b319ced","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"刚刚过去的周末，央行、金管局连发四新政，涉及批量调整存量房贷利率、降低首付比例等。今天（9月30日）是国庆假期前的最后一个交易日，持股还是持币又是投资者面临的两难选择。央行、金管局周末新政四连发9月29日晚间，中国人民银行会同金融监管总局发布四项金融支持房地产政策，包括完善商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机制、优化个人住房贷款最低首付款比例、优化保障性住房再贷款、延长部分房地产金融政策期限等。此外，市场利率定价自律机制发布倡议，各家商业银行原则上应在2024年10月31日前对符合条件的存量房贷开展批量调整。持股or持币过节？刚刚过去的一周，A股市场在多重政策利好的推动下，迎来了久违的暴涨行情。上证指数单周涨幅高达12.81%，创2008年11月以来最大涨幅，深证成指上涨17.83%，创业板指更是大涨22.71%。面对A股强势崛起，投资者们陷入了一场激烈的“持股与持币”之争。一部分看多派坚信节后行情仍将持续发酵，主张持股过节。一部分可能会选择落袋为安，锁定收益。历史数据来看，A股市场在国庆假期之后通常表现较好。10月A股出现过较多次“红十月”行情。沪深300指数自2005年正式推出以来，10月表现总体要强于8月和9月，平均涨幅为0.37%；而在随后的11月和12月，沪深300指数表现更佳。节后第一天市场表现有望提振市场情绪。Wind统计数据显示，2011年至2023年国庆节后第一个交易日，上证指数、深证成指上涨概率均超过6成。除非国庆长假期间，海外市场出现较大幅度下跌，或出现重大利空，否则节后第一个交易日A股上涨概率较高。行业表现来看，国庆假期后5个交易日表现最好，消费、成长、周期涨幅靠前。随着节后股指反弹，绝大多数行业的平均收益率均为正值。四季度行情有望回归光大证券表示，未来持股过节或是不错的选择。一方面，历史来看，A股市场在国庆假期之后通常表现较好。另一方面，当前A股市场估值较低，具有较高的性价比和安全边际，且当前美联储正式开启降息周期，外部压力对国内货币政策的掣肘有望减弱，国内政策或更加积极。此外，从近期的大类资产表现来看，海外投资者对国内并不悲观，如果未来国内经济基本面和资本市场出现进一步好转，海外投资者对A股市场的态度或将转为乐观。因此，国庆假期临近，持股过节或是不错的选择。招商证券认为，从目前的情况看，随着稳增长政策持续出台，在经济数据边际改善的情况下，经济预期有望转暖。四季度接近美联储降息周期开启，叠加人民币季节性升值，有望吸引外资重回净流入，蓝筹回归的概率更高，四季度大盘蓝筹风格有望重回占优。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":354900159381528,"gmtCreate":1727655012105,"gmtModify":1727659988653,"author":{"id":"3495101253533211","authorId":"3495101253533211","name":"世上只有穷病","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e2cca7752c81b0cbee262be1d172a95","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3495101253533211","authorIdStr":"3495101253533211"},"htmlText":"以前是怕半夜鸡叫，这次就怕半夜“鹰”叫","listText":"以前是怕半夜鸡叫，这次就怕半夜“鹰”叫","text":"以前是怕半夜鸡叫，这次就怕半夜“鹰”叫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354900159381528","repostId":2471086896,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":354897246613720,"gmtCreate":1727654302248,"gmtModify":1727654304082,"author":{"id":"3569407590236092","authorId":"3569407590236092","name":"名字要起好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce0658e735946f0b868258608c436f4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3569407590236092","authorIdStr":"3569407590236092"},"htmlText":"赞","listText":"赞","text":"赞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354897246613720","repostId":2471086896,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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