存量房贷利率将下调，净息差迎考验？银行股大涨，招行H股拉升10%

时代周报09-24

来源：图虫创意A股迎来久违大涨！9月24日，受国新办新闻发布会系列重磅政策齐发影响，A股三大指数放量暴涨，沪指拉升4.15%，报2863.13点，创下近4年最高单日涨幅；深成指涨4.36%，报8435.70点；创业板指涨5.54%，报1615.32点；全市场5165只股票上涨，其中98只涨停。从盘面上看，各大板块全线飘红，银行板块涨幅居前，板块内42只个股全数飘红。截至当日收盘，Wind银行指数（...

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Bank stocks soared, China Merchants Bank H shares rose 10%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":0.9,"399300":0.89,"600000":1,"600036":0.9,"600908":1,"601128":1,"601328":1,"601658":1,"002142":1,"001227":1},"content_text":"来源：图虫创意A股迎来久违大涨！9月24日，受国新办新闻发布会系列重磅政策齐发影响，A股三大指数放量暴涨，沪指拉升4.15%，报2863.13点，创下近4年最高单日涨幅；深成指涨4.36%，报8435.70点；创业板指涨5.54%，报1615.32点；全市场5165只股票上涨，其中98只涨停。从盘面上看，各大板块全线飘红，银行板块涨幅居前，板块内42只个股全数飘红。截至当日收盘，Wind银行指数（886052）收涨4.25%，全天主力净流入额达到43.10亿元。个股来看，交通银行（601328.SH）、常熟银行（601128.SH）涨超6%，宁波银行（002142.SZ）、招商银行（600036.SH）、浦发银行（600000.SH）、无锡银行（600908.SH）涨超5%。港股银行指数亦大涨，截至收盘，Wind香港银行指数（887126）大涨4.52%，35只成分股上涨，其中招商银行涨超10%，交通银行涨逾6%，工商银行、建设银行、中国光大银行涨超4%。本次发布的政策中，最受市场关注的无疑是存量房贷利率。中国人民银行行长潘功胜在会上宣布，将降低存量按揭利率至新发放水平，预计平均降幅在50个基点左右。存量房贷利率调整或影响商业银行盈利能力。潘功胜对此表示，“本次存量房贷利率调整对银行净息差的整体影响保持中性。虽然下调存量房贷利率会导致银行利息收入减少，但同时也能抑制客户提前还款的行为。”此外，潘功胜还在会上宣布降低存款准备金率和政策利率，预计将带动市场基准利率下行。存量房贷利率上轮调整平均降幅73个基点存量房贷利率上一轮调整是在2023年9月，彼时央行、国家金融监督管理总局指导下调。据央行今年2月发布的《2023年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》，截至去年末，已有超过23万亿元存量房贷的利率完成下调，调整后加权平均利率为4.27%，平均降幅73个基点。今年以来，在两轮LPR调整的影响下，新增房贷利率仍在不断下探，多个城市新发放的首套住房贷款利率降至3.2%左右，部分地区甚至来到“2”字头。民生证券谭逸鸣团队9月一份研报也指出，今年以来，新增房贷利率持续走低，存量房贷利率仍维持偏高水平，二者差距进一步拉大。存量房贷利率的相对高位也加剧了居民提前还贷。民生证券研报指出，在新增与存量房贷利差维持高位之下，“提前还贷”现象增多，进而增加银行信贷流失压力。反映在上市银行财报中，今年上半年，多数银行的个人住房贷款余额较去年年末出现负增长。Wind数据显示，截至今年6月末，42家上市银行个人住房贷款余额合计达到34.1万亿元，相比去年末减少了3191亿元。国有六大行中，仅邮储银行（601658.SH）个人住房贷款余额增加236.18亿元，其余5家大行的该指标均出现缩水。与此同时，贷款收益率下行，商业银行净息差持续承压。国家金融监管总局发布的数据显示，截至今年6月末，商业银行净息差为1.54%，相比去年同期下降0.2个百分点。从上市银行今年半年报来看，Wind数据显示，截至今年6月末，42家A股上市银行的平均净息差为1.64%，较2023年末的1.78%下降0.14个百分点。其中，除兰州银行（001227.SZ）一家逆势上升外，其余41家银行的净息差均出现了不同程度的下降。今年8月，交通银行副行长周万阜曾在该行2024半年度业绩发布会上表示，从全年来看，交通银行做到保持净息差基本稳定并力求改善，有难度、有挑战。“去年的存量房贷利率的调整、今年的房地产新政，以及今年的两次调减等因素，都在下半年显现。”预计LPR及存款利率随之下行潘功胜在发布会上表示，预计本次政策利率调整将带动中期借贷便利（MLF）利率下调0.3个百分点，预期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）、存款利率也将随之下行0.2-0.25个百分点。据东方金诚王青、冯琳团队研报统计，截至今年6月末，存量房贷规模为37.8万亿元，利率下调0.5个百分点， 意味着银行1年的利息收入减少1890亿元，约相当于2023年银行业利润总额的8.2%左右。上述研报还分析称，“接下来监管层将通过引导商业银行有序下调存款利率的方式予以缓解。截至今年6月末，商业银行各项存款余额为296.5万亿元。这意味着若存款利率平均下调6.4个基点，即可弥补存量房贷利率下调50个基点对银行利润带来的影响。这能够在减轻房贷居民家庭负担的同时，缓解对银行利润的挤压。”值得注意的是，在发布会上，国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽称，计划对6家大型商业银行增加核心一级资本。“近年来，大型商业银行主要依靠自身利润留存的方式来增加资本，但随着银行减费让利的力度不断加大，净息差有所收窄、利润增速逐步放缓，需要统筹内部和外部等多种渠道来充实资本。”李云泽表示，金融监管总局将持续督促大型商业银行提升精细化管理水平，强化资本约束下的高质量发展能力。光大银行金融市场部宏观研究员周茂华对时代财经表示，一般来说，核心一级资本补充工具包括利润留存、IPO、股东增资、配股、可转债等方式。“结合特别国债特点及历史经验看，通过特别国债补充大行资本也可能在考虑之列。”Wind数据显示，截至2024年6月末，建设银行、工商银行、中国银行、农业银行、交通银行、邮储银行的核心一级资本充足率分别为14.01%、13.84%、12.03%、11.13%、10.30%、9.28%。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2469450246"}